NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004
Bush/Cheney in Dead Heat With Kerry/Edwards
in Two-Way and Three-Way Matchups Among Registered Voters
Fifty Percent Favor Embryonic Stem Cell Research;
36 Percent Oppose It
Bush Gains on Handling the Economy, Health Care
NEW YORK, Oct. 16 /PRNewswire/ -- In a two-way matchup, the presidential
race remains in a dead heat in the latest Newsweek Poll. Among registered
voters, Bush/Cheney gets 48 percent and Kerry/Edwards 47 percent of the vote,
a two-point gain for the Bush/Cheney ticket from the Newsweek Poll two weeks
ago. Among likely voters, the Bush/Cheney lead opens up, 50 vs. 45 percent for
Kerry/Edwards and among swing voters, Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 39 vs.
33 percent, with 28 percent undecided, the poll shows.
In a three-way trial heat among registered voters, the race is just as
close: Bush/Cheney beats Kerry/Edwards 48 vs. 46 percent with 1 percent for
Nader/Camejo, the poll shows. That represents a four-point margin swing from
the Sept. 30-Oct. 2 Newsweek Poll: Kerry/Edwards led Bush/Cheney 47 vs. 45
percent. Among likely voters, the gap is bigger: 50 percent for Bush/Cheney
vs. 44 percent for Kerry/Edwards, with 1 percent for Nader/Camejo. And among
swing voters, Kerry/Edwards gets 34 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney get 33
percent with 5 percent for Nader/Camejo and 28 percent undecided, the poll
shows. For this Newsweek Poll, swing voters are defined as those who plan to
vote but say they have not yet made up their mind about who to support. Likely
voters are determined based on response to six questions about voting
intentions, voting history, interest in politics, and knowledge of the voting
process.
With the death of actor Christopher Reeve, the topic of stem cell research
has surfaced in the campaign. In the Newsweek Poll, 54 percent of registered
voters say Kerry would handle stem cell research better than Bush, who got 32
percent of the vote on that issue. Fifty percent of registered voters (and 48%
of swing voters) say they favor using federal tax dollars to fund medical
research using stem cells obtained from human embryos. And of those who favor
it, 75 percent say it's because they support scientific progress generally; 21
percent say it's because they have/know someone with disease. Thirty-six
percent of registered voters oppose the research (and 39% of swing voters). Of
those who oppose the research, 58 percent say it's because it conflicts with
religious/moral values; 37 percent say it's not a good use of public money.
Among registered voters, 44 percent say the issue of stem cell research is at
least somewhat important (14% say very important) in determining their vote
for president. Twenty-eight percent say it's not too important and 25 percent
say it's not at all important in determining their vote, the poll shows.
Forty-four percent of those who watched the third and final debate Oct. 13
say Kerry won; 36 percent say Bush won. Forty-nine percent say Kerry had a
better command of the issues and facts (43% say so for Bush); 53 percent say
Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (39% for Bush) and 49 percent say
Kerry seemed to better understand the problems and concerns of people like
them (43% for Bush). Forty-eight percent say Bush seemed more personally
likeable (43% for Kerry) and 44 percent say Bush did more to distort or
exaggerate his opponent's record on positions on issues (41% say so for
Kerry), the poll shows.
Fifty-five percent of all adults polled say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the United States at this time and Bush's job-approval
rating increased one point from the Sept. 30-Oct. 2 Newsweek Poll to 47
percent. And registered voters are nearly even on whether or not they'd like
to see Bush re-elected to another term: 47 percent say yes; 48 percent say no.
As for who would handle issues better overall, among registered voters
Kerry leads Bush 46 to 40 percent on social security. Kerry leads Bush 48 to
45 percent on handling the economy, a 6-point gain for Bush from the poll
taken two weeks ago. Kerry also leads Bush in handling health care, including
Medicare, 50 to 42 percent, an 8-point gain for Bush since the last Newsweek
Poll. Kerry leads on the environment (51% vs. 34%) and American jobs and
foreign competition (49% vs. 40%). Bush leads Kerry 51-to 41 percent on
handling the situation in Iraq; on terrorism and homeland security (54 % vs.
38%) and taxes (49% vs. 42%), the poll shows.
Overall, 63 percent of registered voters say Bush has strong leadership
qualities (55% say so for Kerry) and 68 percent say Bush says what he
believes, not just what people want to hear, compared to 47 percent for Kerry.
Sixty-six percent say Bush is personally likeable (59% say so for Kerry) and
56 percent say Bush is honest and ethical (52% say so for Kerry), the poll
shows. Fifty-three percent say they would trust Bush to make the right
decisions during an international crisis vs. 47 percent who say so for Kerry.
But 78 percent say Kerry is intelligent and well-informed, vs. 61 percent who
say so for Bush.
Twenty-six percent of registered voters say they and their family will be
better off in terms of retirement security if Bush is re-elected; 31 percent
say so if Kerry were elected but 38 percent say there will be no difference in
their plans either way.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed
1,004 registered voters on October 14-15, 2004. The margin of error is plus or
minus 4 percentage points with different margins of error for subgroups. This
poll is part of the October 25 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday,
October 18).
(Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com.
Click "Pressroom" at bottom of page).
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/
Newsweek Poll
Post-Debates/Stem Cell Research
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(10/16/04)
N = 1,004 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: October 14-15, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,123 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,004 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
880 Likely voters (plus or minus 4) (see definition at the bottom of
Q.1a/b table)
102 Swing voters (plus or minus 11) (see definition at the bottom of
Q.1a/b table)
109 First-time voters (plus or minus 10) (see definition at the bottom
of Q.1a/b table)
158 Early voters (plus or minus 9) (see definition at the bottom of
Q.1a/b table)
354 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
317 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
284 Independents (plus or minus 6)
476 Men (plus or minus 5)
528 Women (plus or minus 5)
120 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
326 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
288 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
237 65+ (plus or minus 7)
479 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
464 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 5)
541 Favor federal funding of stem cell research (plus or minus 5)
339 Oppose federal funding of stem cell research (plus or minus 5)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR DEBATE VIEWERS SUBGROUPS:
697 Debate viewers (watched at least some of this week's presidential
debate) (plus or minus 4)
252 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
227 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
196 Independents (plus or minus 8)
NOTE: Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and
region.
NOTE: Reported subgroup sample sizes are UNWEIGHTED and should not be
used to compute percentages.
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following
three choices for president and vice president... (INSERT CHOICES
AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John
Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter
Camejo, the Independent or third party candidates. Who would you
vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR
NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more
toward...Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the
Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 48 46 1 5 =100
Likely voters 50 44 1 5 =100
Swing voters 33 34 5 28 =100
First-time voters 36 57 1 6 =100
Early voters 43 52 1 4 =100
Men 46 50 * 4 =100
Women 49 43 1 7 =100
18-29 41 50 2 7 =100
30-49 56 39 1 4 =100
50-64 46 48 2 4 =100
65+ 39 54 1 6 =100
Republicans 95 3 * 2 =100
Democrats 7 88 1 4 =100
Independents 40 51 2 7 =100
Trends (RVs)
(9/30-10/2/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 49 43 2 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 3 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Note: "Nader/Camejo" only offered as a choice in states where Nader is on
the ballot. Trends before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different
question wording that did not include vice presidential candidates'
names.
Notet: Likely voters are determined based on response to six questions
about voting intentions, voting history, interest in politics, and
knowledge of the voting process. Likely voter results for this
poll assume a turnout level comparable to 1992, when an estimated
55% of all adult U.S. residents and 61% of citizens eligible to
vote cast a ballot for president.
Note: Swing voters are defined as those who plan to vote but say they have
not yet made up their mind about who to support ("no/don't know in
Q.4). First-time voters are those who say they have never
previously voted in a presidential election. Early voters are
defined as those who have already voted or have taken steps to vote
by absentee ballot or other means before November 2nd.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs 9/30- 9/9- 9/2- 7/29- 7/8-
10/2/04 10/04 3/04 30/04 9/04
Bush/Cheney Voters
37 40 Strong 32 35 39 30 31
11 10 Not Strong 13 14 13 12 13
Kerry/Edwards
Voters
30 32 Strong 31 26 25 31 25
16 12 Not Strong 16 17 16 18 22
Nader/Camejo
Voters
0 0 Strong 1 1 1 * 1
1 1 Not Strong 1 1 2 3 2
5 5 Undecided/Other 6 6 4 6 6
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2a/b. What if you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE)
Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, and Kerry and Edwards, the
Democrats. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?
[IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Undecided/Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Current Total 48 47 5 =100
Likely voters 50 45 5 =100
Swing voters 33 39 28 =100
Trends (RVs)
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 49 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 45 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 43 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 52 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 51 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 45 46 9 =100
(4/8-9/04) 43 50 7 =100
(3/25-26/04) 47 48 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 48 4 =100
Note: Results combine Q1a/b results with Q2a/b choice of Nader supporters.
Question wording somewhat different in earlier polls. Trends prior
to 7/8-9/04 did not include vice presidential candidates' names.
3. [IF ALREADY VOTED EARLY] Is this the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not? [IF HAVEN'T VOTED EARLY] If
you vote this year, will it be the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs
15 9 Yes, first time voter (including all not eligible to vote
before 2004)
84 91 No, not the first time
1 0 Don't know
100 100
4. Have you MADE UP YOUR MIND about who to vote for in the PRESIDENTIAL
election, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No/Don't know Don't plan to
vote/DK
Current Total 85 11 4 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 91 8 1 =100
Kerry/Edwards supporters 86 9 5 =100
Past Election Trends (RVs)
(10/18-20/00) 79 18 3 =100
(10/21-11/2/96) 74 21 5 =100
(10/20-11/2/92) 73 27 * =100
Note: "Yes" includes those who report they already voted. Trends for 1996
and 1992 elections are from Markle Foundation/PSRA surveys.
5a/b. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you
vote for... the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district? As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican or the Democrat
(ROTATE)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Rep/Lean Dem/Lean Undecided/Other
Rep Dem
Current Total 43 46 11 =100
Likely voters 46 44 10 =100
2004 Trends (RVs)
(7/29-30/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 42 49 9 =100
2000 Trends
(10/18-20/00) RVs 39 51 10 =100
(10/18-20/00) LVs 43 47 10 =100
6. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never
heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what about...
(INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND ROTATE ITEMS
C & D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard DK
of
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 51 45 * 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 46 0 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 * 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 40 * 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
b. John Kerry
Current Total 51 44 * 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 * 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 1 7 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 46 * 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current Total 48 43 2 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 44 47 1 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 1 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 50 40 1 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current Total 49 37 4 10 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 31 3 16 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 37 3 15 =100
(9/2-3/04) 46 33 5 16 =100
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
7. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 40 55 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 38 57 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 39 53 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research Center;
7/79-6/92 Gallup.
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 47 46 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from January 2004 to present; earlier trends
selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
Center.
9. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 47 48 5 =100
Likely voters 49 46 5 =100
Trends (RVs)
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
Questions 11 and 12 were asked in random order; in each question series,
the order in which the items were read was rotated with item i always asked
last.
11. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 63 33 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/2-3/04) 65 33 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 56 39 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 55 39 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 62 33 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 50 46 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 47 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 66 29 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 65 31 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 67 29 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 67 29 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 68 28 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 66 29 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 53 44 3 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 42 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 57 40 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 53 43 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 45 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 41 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 61 35 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 59 37 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 37 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 59 36 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 64 29 7 =100
i. Is too conservative
Current Total 32 61 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 58 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 33 61 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 32 61 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
12. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 55 40 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 56 36 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 40 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 41 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 52 39 9 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 33 10 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 35 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 39 14 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c. Cares about people like
you
Current Total 54 39 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 34 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 36 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 38 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 59 34 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 63 31 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 32 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 59 33 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 47 45 8 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 45 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 47 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 47 45 8 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 40 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 48 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 48 48 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 42 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 48 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 78 17 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 80 15 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 74 18 8 =100
i. Is too liberal
Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 43 48 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 43 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
13. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 9/30- 9/9- 9/2- 7/29-
10/2/04 10/04 3/04 30/04
22 Terrorism and homeland 26 25 28 21
security
20 The situation in Iraq 20 15 11 18
16 The economy 21 21 21 19
14 Health care, including 11 14 13 15
Medicare
8 American jobs and foreign 8 9 9 9
competition
5 Education 5 7 6 6
3 Taxes 1 2 3 4
5 Other (VOL.) 3 3 3 4
7 Don't know 5 4 6 4
100 100 100 100 100
14. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to
a better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(vol) (vol)
a. The economy
Current Total 45 48 1 2 4 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 39 52 1 3 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 46 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 43 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in Iraq
Current Total 51 41 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 44 1 3 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 39 * 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 37 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and homeland security
Current Total 54 38 2 1 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 2 2 4
(9/9-10/04) 58 34 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 60 32 2 2 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care, including Medicare
Current Total 42 50 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 34 56 1 4 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 40 50 1 3 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 45 2 2 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. American jobs and foreign competition
Current Total 40 49 1 3 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 54 1 3 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 1 4 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
f. Education
Current Total 45 45 2 2 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 45 46 2 2 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 48 42 2 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
g. Taxes
Current Total 49 42 2 2 5 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 2 4 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 38 1 2 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
h. The environment
Current Total 34 51 2 4 9 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 36 50 2 2 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 29 59 2 2 8 =100
i. Gay marriage
Current Total 41 39 3 7 10 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 44 36 1 6 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 33 1 5 15 =100
(2/5-6/04) 38 29 2 5 26 =100
j. Stem cell research
Current Total 32 54 1 3 10 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 26 53 1 3 17 =100
k. Abortion
Current Total 44 42 2 4 8 =100
l. Social Security
Current Total 40 46 2 5 7 =100
15. Thinking about the presidential candidates' plans for protecting
SOCIAL SECURITY and helping people save for their retirement... Do you
think that you and your family would be better off in terms of
retirement security if Bush is elected or if Kerry is elected -- or
that it won't make much difference either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry No DK
difference
Current Total 26 31 38 5 =100
18-29 16 34 44 6 =100
30-49 26 24 45 5 =100
50-64 32 36 30 2 =100
65 and over 23 39 32 6 =100
Trend
(10/25-27/00) Bush/Gore 29 36 29 6 =100
17. On another subject ... Do you favor or oppose using federal tax
dollars to fund medical research using stem cells obtained from human
embryos?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favor Oppose DK
Current Total 50 36 14 =100
Swing voters 48 39 13 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 34 53 13 =100
Kerry/Edwards supporters 70 15 15 =100
17a. (IF FAVOR) Is that more because you have or know someone with a
disease that might be helped by stem cell research, or mainly because
you support scientific progress generally?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO FAVOR FEDERAL FUNDING OF STEM CELL RESEARCH
21 Have/Know someone with disease
75 Support scientific progress generally
4 Don't know
100
17b. (IF OPPOSE) Is that more because it conflicts with your religious or
moral values or more because you just don't think it's a good use of
public money?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO OPPOSE FEDERAL FUNDING OF STEM CELL
RESEARCH
58 Conflicts with religious/moral values
37 Not a good use of public money
5 Don't know
100
18. How important, if at all, will the issue of stem cell research be in
determining your vote for president ... very important, somewhat
important, not too important, or not at all important?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Very Somewhat Not too Not at DK
all
Current Total 14 30 28 25 3 =100
Swing voters 5 27 40 21 7 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 13 21 31 31 4 =100
Kerry/Edwards
supporters 17 40 26 15 2 =100
21. On another subject...The third and final presidential debate between
George W. Bush and John Kerry was held (last night/Wednesday night).
How much, if any, of this final debate did you happen to watch -- all
or most of it, about half of it, only some, OR hardly any or none of
it?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 9/30-10/2/04 10/18-20/00
44 All or most of the debate 53 33
11 About half 10 13
9 Only some 11 15
35 Hardly any or none 26 35
1 Don't know * 4
100 100 100
Note: 2000 trend question was asked about third and final Bush/Gore debate
that took place on October 17, 2000.
22. Regardless of which presidential candidate you now support, who do you
think won the debate... George W. Bush (or) John Kerry?
BASED ON DEBATE VIEWERS
Bush Kerry No winner/ DK
About even
Current Total 36 44 16 4 =100
Republicans 66 10 20 4 =100
Democrats 7 77 12 4 =100
Independents 32 48 17 3 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) Bush/Kerry
First Debate 19 61 16 4 =100
(10/18-20/00) Bush/Gore
Third Debate 30 43 20 7 =100
Note: "No winner/About even" is a volunteered response category. Debate
viewers are voters who say they watched at least some of Wednesday
night's debate.
23. Now I'm going to read you a list of statements about (last
night's/Wednesday night's) debate and ask whether you think each one
better describes ... (INSERT AND ROTATE) George W. Bush (or) John
Kerry. Does this statement better describe Bush or Kerry IN THE
DEBATE?
BASED ON DEBATE VIEWERS
Bush Kerry Same Neither DK
(vol.) (vol.)
a. Had a better command
of issues and facts
Current Total 43 49 4 1 3 =100
Trend
(9/30-10/2/04) First Debate
37 51 6 2 4 =100
b. Seemed more confident
and self assured
Current Total 39 53 7 * 1 =100
Trend
(9/30-10/2/04) First Debate
26 62 8 1 3 =100
c. Seemed more personally
likeable
Current Total 48 43 5 2 2 =100
Trend
(9/30-10/2/04) First Debate
41 47 6 3 3 =100
d. Seemed to better understand
the problems and concerns
of people like you
Current Total 43 49 2 3 3 =100
e. Did more to distort or
exaggerate his opponent's
record and positions on
issues
Current Total 44 41 9 1 5 =100
Note: Debate viewers are voters who say they watched at least some of
Wednesday night's debate.
24. In answering my next question, please think about what you have seen,
heard or read about ALL THREE presidential debates held this year.
Taken all together, how much did these debates influence your decision
concerning who to support for president? Use a scale of 10 to 1,
where "10" is the MOST influence and "1" is the LEAST influence.
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 10/18- 10/21- 10/20- 10/88
20/00 11/2/96 11/2/92
11 High Influence (9-10) 15 12 16 15
24 Moderate-to-High 23 23 34 30
Influence (6-8)
25 Low-to-Moderate 27 24 30 29
Influence (3-5)
35 Low Influence (1-2) 28 39 19 25
5 Don't know 7 2 1 1
100 100 100 100 100
NOTE: Trends from 1988-96 are from Markle Foundation/PSRA surveys. These
trends are based on those who said they watched any debate.
25. Has what you've learned about the candidates from the debates made you
more likely to vote for... George W. Bush (or) John Kerry OR have the
debates not made much difference either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Kerry Bush No difference DK
Current Total 25 16 56 3 =100
Swing voters 19 6 65 10 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 1 33 64 2 =100
Kerry/Edwards supporters 53 * 44 3 =100
Trend
(10/28-20/00) Bush/Gore Third
Debate 23 21 51 5 =100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek