Democratic lead over Republicans increases to six percentage points, the
largest lead since 2000
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Every year, The Harris Poll(R)
combines nationwide telephone polls conducted throughout the year to measure
party identification and political philosophy. These results are combined to
accurately report on the modest changes from year to year.
The Harris Polls conducted by telephone in 2005 show the Democrats
slightly increasing their modest lead over Republicans in party identification
to six percentage points from three percentage points in 2004. This is the
largest Democratic lead since 2000, when it was eight percentage points.
These are the results of Harris Polls conducted by telephone throughout
2005 among a total of 4,945 U.S. adults. Most Harris Polls are now conducted
online, but to ensure consistency in comparison with the previous years, only
the telephone surveys are included in these tables.
Other results of these surveys, which provide averages for the whole of
2005, are:
* Almost two-thirds (63%) of both Republicans and Democrats consider
themselves "strong" supporters of their parties.
* Independents comprise 22 percent of all adults, down slightly from 24
percent in 2002, 2003 and 2004.
* Conservatives continue to outnumber liberals by a wide margin (34% to
20%), but this is down slightly from a 36 to 18 percent margin in 2004.
* Moderates continue to exceed conservatives (42% to 34%).
Long-Term Trends
Looking at trends over 36 years between 1969 and 2005, several clear
trends (or lack of change) emerge:
* The Democratic lead over Republicans has fallen from 21 percentage
points in the 1970s, 11 points in the 1980s, seven points in the 1990s
and has averaged five percentage points in the 2000s.
* The proportions of conservatives, liberals and moderates have not
changed significantly since the 1980s. However, there was a clear up
tick in conservatives between the 1970s and the 1980s (32% to 36%).
TABLE 1
PARTY AFFILIATION
"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself - a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"
Base: All adults
Year* President Republican Democrat Independent Democratic
Lead
% % % % pts.
2005 Bush, G.W. 30 36 22 6
2004 Bush, G.W. 31 34 24 3
2003 Bush, G.W. 28 33 24 5
2002 Bush, G.W. 31 34 24 3
2001 Bush, G.W. 31 36 22 5
2000 Clinton 29 37 23 8
1999 Clinton 29 36 26 7
1998 Clinton 28 37 27 9
1997 Clinton 29 37 26 8
1996 Clinton 30 38 26 8
1995 Clinton 31 36 28 5
1994 Clinton 32 37 26 5
1993 Clinton 29 38 27 9
1992 Bush, G.H.W. 30 36 29 6
1991 Bush, G.H.W. 32 37 26 5
1990 Bush, G.H.W. 33 38 25 5
1989 Bush, G.H.W. 33 40 23 7
1988 Reagan 31 39 25 8
1987 Reagan 29 38 28 9
1986 Reagan 30 39 25 9
1985 Reagan 30 39 26 9
1984 Reagan 27 40 24 13
1983 Reagan 26 41 27 15
1982 Reagan 26 40 28 14
1981 Reagan 28 39 28 11
1980 Carter 24 41 29 17
1979 Carter 22 41 31 19
1978 Carter 22 43 30 21
1977 Carter 21 48 25 27
1976 Ford 24 47 24 23
1975 Nixon/Ford 21 46 27 25
1974 Nixon 23 45 32 22
1973 Nixon 26 48 26 22
1972 Nixon 30 47 23 17
1971 Nixon 31 49 20 18
1970 Nixon 31 49 20 18
1969 Nixon 32 49 19 17
NOTE: "Other" and "Not sure" responses excluded.
*Data are not available for 1968.
TABLE 2
STRENGTH OF REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC LOYALTY (2005)
"Do you consider yourself a strong Republican/Democrat or a weak
Republican/Democrat?"
Base: All adults
Republican Democrat
% %
Strong 63 63
Weak 35 36
Not sure 1 2
Note: Percentages many not add up to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
DECADE MEANS OF DEMOCRATIC LEAD
"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself - a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"
Base: All adults
Democratic Lead
% pts.
1970s 21
1980s 11
1990s 7
2000's (so far) 5
TABLE 4
POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
"How would you describe your own political philosophy - conservative,
moderate, or liberal?"
Base: All adults
Year* President Conservative Moderate Liberal
% % %
2005 Bush, G.W. 34 42 20
2004 Bush, G.W. 36 41 18
2003 Bush, G.W. 33 40 18
2002 Bush, G.W. 35 40 17
2001 Bush, G.W. 36 40 19
2000 Clinton 35 40 18
1999 Clinton 37 39 18
1998 Clinton 37 40 19
1997 Clinton 37 40 19
1996 Clinton 38 41 19
1995 Clinton 40 40 16
1992 Bush, G.H.W. 36 42 18
1991 Bush, G.H.W. 37 41 18
1990 Bush, G.H.W. 38 41 18
1989 Bush, G.H.W. 37 42 17
1988 Reagan 38 39 18
1987 Reagan 37 39 19
1986 Reagan 37 39 18
1985 Reagan 37 40 17
1984 Reagan 35 39 18
1983 Reagan 36 40 18
1982 Reagan 36 40 18
1981 Reagan 38 40 17
1980 Carter 35 41 18
1979 Carter 35 39 20
1978 Carter 34 39 17
1977 Carter 30 42 17
1976 Ford 31 40 18
1975 Nixon/Ford 30 38 18
1974 Nixon 30 43 15
1972 Nixon 31 36 20
1968 Nixon 37 31 17
* Data are not available for the following years: 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973,
1993, and 1994.
TABLE 5
DECADE MEANS OF POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
"How would you describe your own political philosophy - conservative,
moderate, or liberal?"
Base: All adults
Conservative Moderate Liberal
% % %
1970s 32 40 18
1980s 36 40 18
1990s 38 41 18
2000's (so far) 35 41 18
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States
between January and December 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 4,945
adults aged 18 and over. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of
adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted
where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95
percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling
error of plus or minus 1 percentage point of what they would be if the entire
U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately,
there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that
are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error.
They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and
question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and
screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors
that may result from these factors.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
About Harris Interactive(R)
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New York, is the 13th largest and the fastest-growing market research firm in
the world, most widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for its pioneering
leadership in the online market research industry. Long recognized by its
clients for delivering insights that enable confident business decisions, the
Company blends the science of innovative research with the art of strategic
consulting to deliver knowledge that leads to measurable and enduring value.
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To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com
Press Contact:
Jennifer Cummings
Harris Interactive
585-214-7720
Harris Interactive Inc. 1/06
The Harris Poll(R) #5, January 18, 2006
By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive
SOURCE Harris Interactive.
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Related links:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com
http://www.harrispollonline.com
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe
CONTACT:
Jennifer Cummings, Harris Interactive,
+1-585-214-7720
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