Most U.S. adults think having a democratic, elected government in Iraq is more
important than having a government friendly to the U.S.
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Public attitudes toward the
upcoming elections in Iraq are decidedly mixed, according to a new Harris
Poll. Only a third (34%) of the U.S. public believes the situation in Iraq
will improve after the elections, and less than a third (28%) believes that
the elections will lead to a reasonably free and democratic system of
government. Less than a quarter (24%) of the public thinks that Iraq will be a
model which will help spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East. And
less than one in five believes that the elections will enable most U.S. troops
to leave Iraq in the next year (18%), or that there will be a reduction in the
number of attacks on U.S. troops there (17%).
These are some of the findings of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,209 U.S.
adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between January 11 and 16,
2005.
Other results of this survey include:
* While only 15 percent of all adults believe that the elected Iraqi
government will be a close ally of the United States, a 55 percent
majority believes that it will be either a close ally or friendly to
the U.S.
* Republicans are much more optimistic than Democrats or Independents.
Fully 66 percent of Republicans believe that the situation in Iraq will
be better after the elections but only 16 percent of Democrats and 28
percent of Independents believe this.
While most people are not optimistic about the future of Iraq, very
large majorities believe that trying to promote democracy in Iraq is a
desirable goal even if a democratic Iraqi government turns out to be
unfriendly to the United States. Specifically:
* A large 71 to 29 percent majority of the public believes that it is
more important to have an elected, democratic Iraqi government than to
have one which is friendly to this country.
* An overwhelming 90 to 10 percent majority believes that even if the
elected Iraqi government is unfriendly to the United States, the U.S.
should try to work with that government and not try to change it to one
that is more friendly.
TABLE 1
After Elections Will Situation in Iraq Get Better or Worse
"After the elections in Iraq take place soon, do you think the situation in
Iraq will be ... ?"
Base: All Adults
Party ID
Total Republican Democrat Independent
% % % %
Better (Net) 34 66 16 28
A Lot Better 5 12 1 3
Somewhat Better 29 54 15 25
The Same 34 21 37 42
Worse (Net) 25 9 38 25
A Lot Worse 15 4 23 15
A Little Worse 10 5 15 10
Not Sure 7 4 10 5
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
What Will Happen After There is an Elected Government?
"After there is an elected government in place in Iraq, do you think this will
or will not ... ?"
Base: All Adults
Will Will Not Not Sure
% % %
Lead to a reasonably free and
democratic system of government in Iraq 28 41 31
Be a model which will help spread freedom
and democracy in the Middle East 24 47 29
Enable most U.S. troops to leave Iraq in
the next year 18 59 23
Reduce the number of attacks against the
U.S. troops 17 64 19
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
Expected Relationship of Elected Iraqi Government with U.S.
"Do you think the Iraqi government due to be elected soon will be ... ?"
Base: All Adults
%
A close ally of the United States 15
Friendly but not a close ally 40
Not friendly but not an enemy 25
Unfriendly and an enemy 7
Not sure 14
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
Which is More Important: An Elected, Democratic Iraqi Government
or One That is Friendly to U.S.
"Which do you believe is more important: an elected, democratic government or
a government that is friendly towards the United States?"
Base: All Adults
%
Elected government 71
Friendly government 29
TABLE 5
What U.S. Should Do if Elected Iraqi Government is Unfriendly
"If the elected Iraqi government is unfriendly toward the United States,
should the U.S. ... ?"
Base: All Adults
%
Try to work with the new government 90
Try to change the government to one that is
more favorable towards the United States 10
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between
January 11 and 16, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 2,209 adults (aged
18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household
income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual
proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to
adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95
percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2
percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of
error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical
calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed
(non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is
impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This
online sample is not a probability sample.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com ), the 15th
largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester,
N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting
with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and
application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based
research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research
to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and
technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned
subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com ), Paris-based
Novatris (http://www.novatris.com ), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan,
through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com ),
a Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in
the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market
research companies. EOE M/F/D/V.
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com .
Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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Related links:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com
http://www.harrispollonline.com http://www.hieurope.com
http://www.novatris.com http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com
CONTACT:
Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo,
+1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive
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