ANN ARBOR, Mich., March 9 /PRNewswire/ -- "More vehicles will be produced
in the next 20 years than were manufactured in the previous 110-year history
of the industry," said Professor Garel Rhys today, which will require a "$US
80 trillion investment, 180 new assembly plants [and require most existing
factories to be] renewed, retooled, refurbished or replaced to remain
effective."
The future of the world automotive industry is a mighty big topic, but
Professor Rhys, world renowned expert on the industry, offered his insights to
a gathering of the Society of Automotive Analysts (SAA) Tuesday morning.
Rhys, director of the Centre for Automotive Industry Research Cardiff
University Business School in Wales, was in town this week for the 2004 World
Congress of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE).
Much of that increase will be the result of emerging markets, those now
experiencing dynamic growth and those yet to become players in the world
automotive market. China, India and particularly Eastern Europe are rapidly
becoming mobile, as their economies and societies evolve. The key factor,
according to Professor Rhys is that the country's gross domestic product per
head must rise to a level that will support the development of infrastructure
and increase personal income. This formula also applies to the virtually
stagnant economies of Central Asia though those will take much longer to
develop.
The world automotive market is like a "coil spring that can go any
direction," in Professor Rhys' view. Large firms hang on to product
philosophy and business methods rather than innovate, while smaller firms may
be more creative and willing to take chances.
"The love affair we talk about with automobiles is really a love affair
with individual mobility. As GDP/head increases, so do the wants and needs of
people to come and go with more and more style and individuality."
Lean manufacturing is not only here to stay but will continue to define
successful automobile production. "Lean manufacturing is a footnote to
economists but a career to manufacturing consultants," said the professor.
Russia is on the verge of getting it right and will become more of a contender
in coming years. With the remarkable gains in production efficiency has come
the ability to offer ever-widening varieties of vehicles. "There will be
nowhere for the inefficient to hide," said the professor.
But technical excellence is not enough. The role of "brand" and marketing
is ever increasing. The pace of change and innovation as well as
unprecedented competition puts the customer in a controlling position.
While Professor Rhys predicts that production overcapacity is likely to
remain essentially unchanged into the foreseeable future, it may be the only
static variable. The global automotive industry, he says, "is the most
dynamic and interesting industry of all."
For additional information, contact SAA headquarters at 800/704-0051; fax
734-677-2407; e-mail to info@cybersaa.org , or visit the SAA website at
http://www.cybersaa.org .
The Society of Automotive Analysts is dedicated to providing outstanding
educational programs and superior networking opportunities to its members.
SAA offers conferences, programs, its website and other forums in which to
discuss, debate, and learn about a broad variety of subjects and timely
industry issues.
SOURCE Society of Automotive Analysts
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