DUBLIN, Ireland, March 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c13832 ) has announced the addition
of Cruel Dichotomy - Assessing the Impact of the 2004 Tsunami on IT Spending
in Southeast Asia to their offering.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20040820/RESEARCH )
This IDC study examines the short-term and long-term aspects of the
December 2004 deadly tsunami on the economies of Thailand, Indonesia,
Malaysia, and India. IDC vendors will find an evaluation of the magnitude of
the impact on overall economic performance and the IT spending potential in
particular. IDC makes the case for further acceleration of IT spending in the
region in the near term (18-24 months), justified by the V-shaped profile of
the economic impact and by the rising probability that the rebuilding efforts
might foster the implementation of a dual-track development strategy.
We examine the short-term and long-term aspects of the exogenous shock to
the economies of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India and evaluate the
magnitude of the impact on their overall economic performance. We make the
case for further acceleration of IT spending in the region in the near term
(18-24 months), justified by the V-shaped profile of the economic impact and
by the rising probability that the rebuilding efforts might foster the
implementation of a dual-track development strategy.
The impacted economies represent 8.1% of the IT spending potential in
Asia/Pacific, but with acceleration well above the average 5.7% annual growth
projected by IDC for 2005, their role in the region is significant (see Figure
1). This year, the Asian IT market is likely to be driven primarily by the
boom in India.
While the social and economic impact of the disaster is more readily
quantifiable, assessing the impact on these nations' IT markets requires
additional tools. Since the mid-1990s, IDC has been measuring and tracking the
ability of 53 nations to participate in the information revolution. While GDP
measures a country's economic wealth, IDC's Information Society Index (ISI)
measures its information capacity and wealth. The ISI combines 15 variables
arranged in four infrastructure pillars to calculate and rank nations in one
overall index and four subindexes. The index and subindexes establish a
standard by which all nations are measured according to their ability to
access and absorb information. The four largest countries affected by the
tsunami - India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand - consistently rank near
the bottom of the ISI listing. An analysis of the ISI reveals that these
countries, with their less advanced infrastructures and social advantages,
offer the most difficult short-term opportunities but the greatest long-term
possibilities for growth.
Evaluating the repercussions of the tsunami destruction on the economies
and IT spending potentials of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and India, IDC
finds that the momentum of the region in 2005 will not be derailed. The
magnitude of the disaster in terms of loss of life is not comparable to the
damage in economic terms.
The replacement of lost fixed capital is likely to involve a higher IT
intensity of the newly built productive capacity and thus bodes well for the
acceleration of IT spending in the bigger economies. The possibility that
rebuilding spending could foster investment in the nonmanufacturing industries
of the impacted larger economies will be an additional positive for IT vendors
in the region, presenting an opportunity to penetrate new verticals.
Anna Toncheva, an economist in IDC's IT Markets and Strategies, advises
that, 'The economic impact of the tsunami will not be enough to derail
momentum in the IT market in the region in 2005. We will see a minimal short-
term slowdown in IT spending in these countries, compensated for by a further
acceleration in the near term (18-24 months). The anticipated overhaul of the
overall economic development strategy of these countries, with an emphasis on
the nonmanufacturing sectors of the economy, will shape the IT spending
profile of the region in the near term.'
For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c13832
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
Research and Markets
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax: +353 1 4100 980
SOURCE Research and Markets
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Related links:
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c13832
Photo Notes:http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20040820/RESEARCH
CONTACT:
Laura Wood, Senior Manager of Research and
Markets, press@researchandmarkets.com, Fax, +353-1-4100-980
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