WASHINGTON, March 23 /PRNewswire/ -- Teal Group today announced
publication of its new Near-term Outlook during the Satellite 2005 conference
and exhibition taking place this week at the Washington, DC Convention Center.
The study estimates there will be a total of 99 satellites/capsules launched
to Earth orbit this year. The number would represent a 26% increase over 2004.
    "We view our forecast of 99 satellites/capsules aboard 65 launch vehicles
for 2005 as a fairly conservative one," says Marco Caceres, the lead analyst
for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated
competitive intelligence service.  (For more information on the service, call
703-573-5374, e-mail dcornell@tealgroup.com or fax 703-691-9591).  By
comparison, a total of 73 spacecraft were launched (or attempted to be
launched) by 55 rockets in 2004.
    According to the study, the last time the number of satellites/capsules
launched showed this kind of annual growth was in 1997, when 155 spacecraft
were launched by 86 rockets, versus 102 spacecraft launched aboard 76 rockets
in 1996.
    "Nothing in recent years has made such a sudden impact on the space launch
market as those initial batches of Iridium and Orbcomm commercial mobile
communications satellites in 1997," says Caceres.  However, he notes that
return to flight of Europe's Ariane 5ECA, Japan's H-2A, and NASA's Space
Shuttle will provide a boost to the market.  "The revival of these three
launch vehicle programs alone should add 5-6 missions this year and get the
market back up to more than 60 launches annually."
    Of the spacecraft projected to go up in 2005, 32.3% are classified as
civil (government non-military), 27.3% as military, 24.2% as commercial, and
16.2% as university.  In 2004, 38.4% of the spacecraft launched were civil,
31.5% military, 27.4% commercial, and 2.7% university.
    The thrust of the study is the view that the launch market will rebound in
2005, but that it will be modest ... that there is little to suggest that the
market will change radically in the near-future.  The study highlights Hughes'
Spaceway dedicated broadband satellite system and SpaceX's Falcon
partly-reusable rocket as two programs that could have noticeable impact on
the market.  The first Spaceway is expected to be launched by the end the
year. Falcon is scheduled to launch its first two missions this year.

    Teal Group Corp. is an aerospace and defense consulting firm which
provides market intelligence to government and industry.  It is based in
Fairfax, Virginia.

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