Spain Leading Economic Indicators and related composite indexes for March
2008
NEW YORK, May 13 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board announced today
that the leading index for Spain declined 0.9 percent and the coincident
index decreased 0.1 percent in March.
-- In March, the leading index posted its sharpest monthly decline since
July 1992. The capital equipment component of industrial production,
job placings and the order book survey all made large negative
contributions to the index more than offsetting small positive
contributions from the remaining three components. Since September,
the leading index has remained unchanged, down sharply from a 5.7
percent annual growth rate for the period between September 2006 and
March 2007 when the leading index was increasing near its peak growth
rate in recent years. Additionally, the weaknesses among the leading
indicators have become more widespread this month.
-- The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, declined
slightly in March, primarily as a result of a large drop in that
month's retail sales survey. Despite this decrease, the coincident
index increased by 0.6 percent (about a 1.1 percent annual rate)
between September 2007 and March 2008, but this is a significant
slowdown from the 3.1 percent annual rate of growth which prevailed
during the first half of 2007. However, the strengths among the
coincident indicators have remained more widespread than the
weaknesses.
-- The growth rate of the leading index has fallen off dramatically over
the past year, after maintaining a high level for most of the period
between the third quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2007.
Likewise, the growth rate of the coincident index has slowed
dramatically since its March 2007 peak. At the same time, real
growth has declined somewhat from an average annual rate of 3.9
percent during the first two quarters of 2007 to 3.1 percent during
the last two quarters. The behavior of the leading and coincident
indexes suggests that economic growth is likely to continue slowing in
the near term.
LEADING INDICATORS. Three of the six components that make up the
leading index increased in September. The positive contributors -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are the Spanish
contribution to Euro M2, the Spanish equity price index, and the inverted
long-term government bond yield. The negative contributors -- in order from
the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are the capital
equipment component of industrial production, job placings and order books
survey.
With the decrease of 0.9 percent in March, the leading index now stands
at 157.3 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2
percent in February and declined 0.1 percent in January. During the
six-month span through March, the index remained unchanged, and two of the
six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3
percent).
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the five components that make up the
coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors -- in order
from the largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are final
household consumption*, employment*, and real imports*. The retail sales
survey declined in March, while industrial production remained unchanged.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in March, the coincident index now
stands at 159.0 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3
percent in February and increased 0.2 percent in January. During the
six-month span through March, the index increased 0.6 percent, and three of
the five components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 60.0
percent).
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is
the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board
has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional
relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide
range of business challenges. The Board's Economics Program, is a
recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators
such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.
This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that
stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the
cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board
assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.
Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle
indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Mexico,
Spain and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please contact
customer service at 212-339-0345, or email indicators@conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Indexes
2008 6-month
Jan Feb Mar Sep to Mar
Leading index 158.4 r 158.7 157.3 p
Percent Change -0.1 r 0.2 r -0.9 p 0.0 p
Diffusion 50.0 50.0 41.7 33.3
Coincident Index 158.8 p 159.2 p 159.0 p
Percent Change 0.2 p 0.3 p -0.1 p 0.6 p
Diffusion 90.0 90.0 70.0 60.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 1990
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
Website: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/
SOURCE The Conference Board
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CONTACT:
Indicator Program for The Conference Board:
+1-212-339-0330; Media: Frank Tortorici, +1-212-339-0231, or
Carol Courter, +1-212-339-0232
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