Looking ahead, this week will bring little amusements on the earnings
front, but a long string of economic releases could impact the broader market,
including tech shares. Personal spending, Chicago PMI, ISM manufacturing and
unemployment are among the coming attractions. Traders will likely pay close
attention to any data assessing the mood of the consumer, who's been reluctant
to open the purse strings lately, due in part to higher energy prices and a
fragile labor situation, according to some pundits. So, will John Doe rush
this year to buy computers and other tech items for Junior in the
back-to-school season? Recent analyst tours in Asia are not bullish.
Traveling through Taiwan, Prudential Equity visited several fables IC
companies, one foundry and one DRAM/specialty SRAM maker. Visibility appeared
poor, inventories were sometimes above normal levels and the DRAM maker had
not yet seen a pickup in orders for the back-to-school season. Prudential
concluded that the lack of uptick in orders this late in the quarter was an
incremental negative for the semi sector in general. Meanwhile, Smith Barney
toured Taiwan, Korea and Japan and also came back with a mixed report, notably
that the handset outlook for the second half of 2004 is worsening. Similarly,
American Century Global Growth Fund's Matt Hudson tells Dow Jones that, "Our
original thesis we had is that as business investment picked up,
information-technology budgets would pick up. That happened in the first half,
but now it's a little more unclear." He is opting for the oil group instead,
saying, "We are of the assumption that oil ... will stay higher for longer.
There's definitely a terrorism/geopolitical prism priced into oil. We don't
think you'll see it back to $25 a barrel any time soon." However, as the month
of August comes to a close, the tech and energy sectors are the market's
biggest losers.
High-Tech Monday Update is provided courtesy of Thomson Financial. This
information is believed to be true and accurate; we take no responsibility for
inaccurate information and reserve the right to update our reports. For more
information, please visit our web site at http://www.thomson.com/financial.
SOURCE Thomson Financial Corporate Group
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