Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,
Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce
Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;
Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003
27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift
Boat Ads
NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican
National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters. In
a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters. That represents a
13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research
Center.
And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the
would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term. The last time a
majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.
In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think
President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is
more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what
people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions
during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs.
42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). In addition, more registered
voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various
issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq
(55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49%
vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%). More
people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare,
including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).
Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism
and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote.
Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11
percent say the situation in Iraq. On that subject, a majority of registered
voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military
action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer
from terrorism (45% think it has). And, among registered voters, 44 percent
think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it
was).
Despite the four-day convention, a strong 60-percent majority of
registered voters say they saw none of (32%) or very little (28%) coverage of
the RNC on television last week. Only 40 percent say they saw some of it
(24%) or a great deal (16%). And only 36 percent say they now have a more
favorable opinion of the Republican Party, with 27 percent saying they have a
less favorable opinion. Of Independents, 29 percent said they have a more
favorable opinion of the Republicans and 27 percent said less favorable.
Following the Democratic convention in July, 41 percent who said they had a
more favorable opinion of the Democrats. Only 24 percent said they had a less
favorable opinion. And of the 45 percent of registered voters who said they
watched all or part of the President's speech, 37 percent said they had a more
favorable opinion of him, while 18 percent said it was less favorable.
As to the presidential candidates' military service, though 75 percent of
registered voters say what they've seen or heard about Bush's military service
will not have much effect on their vote, and 62 percent say the same about
Kerry's military service in Vietnam, 75 percent of registered voters have seen
or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a veterans' group questioning
Kerry's military record. And 21 percent say those ads are generally accurate.
Thirty-nine percent say they are misleading or distorted. Only 25 percent are
not aware of those ads. Twenty-seven percent of registered voters think the
Bush/Cheney campaign is behind the ads, while 38 percent think they were
produced independently. (However, 26 percent of military households who have
seen or heard about John Kerry's military record say they are less likely to
vote for him).
Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, a majority of registered
voters (50%) said they would like to see former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani run for president in 2008 (65% of Republicans), followed by Arizona
Sen. John McCain (48%, 47% of Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (22%,
30% of Republicans), if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born
U.S. citizens to run.
This poll is part of the September 13 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands
Monday, September 6). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older on Sept.
2-3, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.
(Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com. Click
"Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)
Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International
Final Topline Results
(9/4/04)
N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,188 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)
374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)
476 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5)
112 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
349 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
516 50+ (plus or minus 5)
283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8)
417 Military households (plus or minus 6)
578 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)
310 Republican states (plus or minus 6)
409 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
289 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY
187 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8)
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the
following three choices for president and vice president...
(INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the
Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and
Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Independent or third party
candidates. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney,
the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and
Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Bush Total Kerry Total Nader Undec./
/Cheney /Edwards /Camejo Other
Current Total 52 41 3 4 =100
Thursday interviews 49 43 3 5 =100
Friday interviews 54 38 4 4 =100
Republicans 94 4 1 1 =100
Democrats 14 82 1 3 =100
Independents 45 40 9 6 =100
Men 54 39 4 3 =100
Women 50 43 2 5 =100
18-29 45 45 9 1 =100
30-49 56 37 3 4 =100
50+ 50 44 1 5 =100
Southern White 66 30 1 3 =100
Non-Southern White 51 41 4 4 =100
Non-White 34 56 4 6 =100
Military households 58 36 2 4 =100
Non-military households 48 43 4 5 =100
Republican states 56 37 2 5 =100
Swing states 51 42 3 4 =100
Democratic states 47 44 5 4 =100
Trends
(8/5-10/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center. July 29-30,
2004 poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention
and should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce. Trends
before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different question wording that did not
include vice presidential candidates' names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
Total 8/5-10/04 7/29-30/04
7/8-9/04 5/13-14/04 4/8-9/04
Bush/Cheney
Voters
39 Strong 32 30 31 24 28
13 Not Strong 13 12 13 18 14
Kerry/Edwards
Voters
25 Strong 28 31 25 22 21
16 Not Strong 19 18 22 21 25
Nader/Camejo
Voters
1 Strong 1 * 1 1 1
2 Not Strong 1 3 2 4 2
4 Undecided/Other 6 6 6 10 8
100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center. July 29-30, 2004
poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention and
should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce. Trends
before 7/8-9/04 based on results that did not include vice presidential
candidates.
Strength of Support by
Candidate Preference
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Supporters Supporters
Strength of Support
Strong 74 62
Not Strong 26 38
100 100
Number of Interviews (541) (403)
2a/b. Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice
president and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND
ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, and
John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats. If the election
were held TODAY, who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Two-Way Trial Heat
Total Bush Total Kerry Undecided/Other
/Cheney /Edwards
Current Total 54 43 3 =100
Thursday interviews 52 46 2 =100
Friday interviews 56 40 4 =100
3. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had
never heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what
about... (INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND
ROTATE ITEMS C & D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of DK
a. George W. Bush
Current RVs 55 40 * 5 =100
Trends - RVs
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
b. John Kerry
Current RVs 45 46 * 9 =100
Trends - RVs
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current RVs 50 40 1 9 =100
Trend - RVs
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current RVs 46 33 5 16 =100
Trends - RVs
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
4. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in
the United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 43 49 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's
capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic
Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research
Center; 7/79-6/92 Gallup.
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
his job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 52 41 7 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 51 42 7 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/30-31/03) 51 39 10 =100
(10/23-24/03) 51 40 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/25-26/03) 52 40 8 =100
(9/18-19/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/23-24/03) 55 38 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/24-25/02) 61 29 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/26-27/02) 65 27 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/25-26/01) 85 10 5 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends
selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
Center.
6. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to
another term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 53 43 4 =100
Republican 93 5 2 =100
Democrat 14 82 4 =100
Independent 48 46 6 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
7. If you could vote separately for VICE PRESIDENT, would you be more
likely to vote for ... (ROTATE BY FORM) Dick Cheney, the Republican; or
John Edwards, the Democrat?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Cheney Edwards Neither/Other DK
Current Total 44 45 3 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 36 55 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 41 52 2 5 =100
Note: Neither/Other is a volunteered response category.
Questions 8 and 9 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
order in which the items were read was rotated with item h in question 8 and
items h-i in question 9 always asked last.
8. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
phrases describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this
describe Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a.Has strong leadership
qualities
Current Total 65 33 2 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b.Is honest and ethical
Current Total 62 33 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c.Cares about people like you
Current Total 53 43 4 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d.Is personally likeable
Current Total 67 29 4 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e.Says what he believes, not
just what people want to hear
Current Total 66 29 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f.Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 57 40 3 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g.Shares your values
Current Total 54 41 5 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h.Is too conservative
Current Total 32 61 7 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
9. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
phrases describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about ... (Does this
describe Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a.Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 47 41 12 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b.Is honest and ethical
Current Total 47 39 14 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c.Cares about people like you
Current Total 49 38 13 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d.Is personally likeable
Current Total 59 33 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e.Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 42 47 11 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f.Would trust him to make the right
decisions during an international
crisis
Current Total 44 48 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g.Shares your values
Current Total 42 48 10 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is too liberal
Current Total 45 43 12 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
i.Is a war hero
Current Total 48 31 21 =100
Trend
(1/29-30/04) 46 19 35 =100
10. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE 1-7)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind 7/29-30/04
28 Terrorism and homeland security 50 10 23 21
21 The economy 14 29 19 19
13 Health care, including Medicare 5 22 13 15
11 The situation in Iraq 9 11 15 18
9 American jobs and foreign
competition 5 12 10 9
6 Education 3 6 9 6
3 Taxes 4 1 4 4
3 (VOL.-DO NOT READ) Other 3 3 4 4
6 (DO NOT READ) Don't know 7 6 3 4
100 100 100 100 100
11. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell
me if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to a
better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(VOL) (VOL)
a. The economy
Current Total 49 43 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in
Iraq
Current Total 55 37 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and
homeland security
Current Total 60 32 2 2 4 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care,
including Medicare
Current Total 43 45 2 2 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. Education
Current Total 48 42 2 2 6 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
f. Taxes
Current Total 52 38 1 2 7 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
g. American jobs and
foreign
competition
Current Total 45 44 1 3 7 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
h. Foreign policy in
general
Current Total 54 38 2 1 5 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 44 49 1 2 4 =100
i. The environment
Current Total 36 50 2 2 10 =100
Trend
(7/29-30/04) 29 59 2 2 8 =100
j. Gay marriage
Current Total 44 36 1 6 13 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 46 33 1 5 15 =100
(2/5-6/04) 38 29 2 5 26 =100
Note: Trend results for item j are based on slightly different question
wording: "Which presidential candidate comes closer to reflecting your
own views on the issue of gay marriage?"
Questions 12 and 13 were asked in random order
12. Has what you've seen or heard about George W. Bush's military
service record in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War made
you more likely or less likely to vote for him in November, or has it not
had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH 7/29-30/04
5 More likely 6 5 5
17 Less likely 16 18 22
75 Not much effect 75 74 70
1 Haven't heard about
/Not aware of (VOL.) 1 1 2
2 Don't know 2 2 1
100 100 100 100
13. Has what you've seen or heard about John Kerry's military service
record in the Vietnam War made you more likely or less likely to vote for
him in November, or has it not had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH 7/29-30/04
15 More likely 15 16 27
19 Less likely 26 15 15
62 Not much effect 55 66 55
2 Haven't heard about
/Not aware of (VOL.) 1 2 1
2 Don't know 3 1 2
100 100 100 100
14a. Have you seen or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a
veterans' group questioning John Kerry's military service record in
Vietnam?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
75 Yes, seen or heard about the ads
24 No
1 Don't know
100
14b. From what you've seen or heard, do you think these ads are generally
accurate in what they say about Kerry's military service in Vietnam,
or are misleading or distorted?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH
21 Generally accurate 26 19
39 Misleading or distorted 36 40
25 Not aware of ads 21 27
15 Don't know 17 14
100 100 100
14c. Do you think the Bush-Cheney campaign is behind these anti-Kerry
ads, or that the ads were produced independently, without the Bush-
Cheney campaign's involvement?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current Military HH Non-Military HH
27 Bush-Cheney campaign
behind ads 24 30
38 Produced independently 46 34
26 Not aware of ads 21 27
9 Don't know 9 9
100 100 100
15. On another subject ... All in all, do you think George W. Bush's
economic and tax policies have done more to help or hurt economic
conditions in this country - or haven't had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 7/29-30/04
38 Help 33
38 Hurt 43
19 Not much effect 20
5 Don't know 4
100 100
16. From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 55 38 7 =100
Republicans 87 11 2 =100
Democrats 29 61 10 =100
Independents 46 48 6 =100
Trends
(5/13-14/04) 51 43 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 57 39 4 =100
(3/25-26/04) 55 41 4 =100
(3/18-19/04) 57 37 6 =100
(1/29-30/04) 55 39 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 62 32 6 =100
(11/6-7/03) 55 38 7 =100
(10/23-24/03) 59 34 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 56 37 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 64 31 5 =100
(8/21-22/03) 61 33 6 =100
(7/24-25/03) 68 28 4 =100
Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
17. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
safer from terrorism, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 45 50 5 =100
Republicans 75 20 5 =100
Democrats 21 76 3 =100
Independents 38 57 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 38 57 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 53 3 =100
18. Do you think Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was DIRECTLY involved
in planning, financing, or carrying out the terrorist attacks of
September 11th, 2001, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 42 44 14 =100
Republicans 55 32 13 =100
Democrats 32 54 14 =100
Independents 37 48 15 =100
Trends
(1/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(9/18-19/03) 47 37 16 =100
Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
19. How much, if any, of the Republican Convention did you watch on TV
this week ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
None Very little Some A great DK
of it of it deal
Current Total 32 28 24 16 * =100
Trends
2004 Democratic
Convention 25 26 29 19 1 =100
2000 Republican
Convention 31 28 26 15 * =100
2000 Democratic
Convention 25 27 28 18 2 =100
1996 Republican
Convention 27 29 26 17 1 =100
1992 Republican
Convention 16 29 33 22 0 =100
1988 Republican
Convention 17 26 27 30 * =100
Note: 1988 trend from Gallup.
20. From what you saw or heard about this week's Republican Convention,
is your opinion of the Republican Party more favorable or less
favorable?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less No change Didn't follow conv. DK
Current Total 36 27 23 12 2 =100
Republicans 66 3 23 7 1 =100
Democrats 13 52 18 14 3 =100
Independents 29 27 29 13 2 =100
Trends
2004 Democratic
Convention 41 24 22 9 4 =100
2000 Republican
Convention 49 22 18 5 6 =100
2000 Democratic
Convention 43 20 21 10 6 =100
1996 Republican
Convention 40 27 22 8 3 =100
1992 Republican
Convention 35 41 18 4 2 =100
1988 Republican
Convention 43 26 20 3 8 =100
Note: 1988 trend from Gallup
21. Did you happen to watch all or part of George W. Bush's acceptance
speech last night on live television?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
Yes No DK
Current Total 45 53 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 51 49 * =100
2000 - Bush speech 49 50 1 =100
2000 - Gore speech 53 45 2 =100
1996 - Dole speech 46 54 * =100
22. From what you saw or heard about George W. Bush's acceptance speech,
is your opinion of Bush more favorable or less favorable?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
More Less No change Didn't follow DK
Current Total 37 18 22 22 1 =100
Republicans 61 2 17 18 2 =100
Democrats 10 37 23 28 2 =100
Independents 35 17 26 20 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 43 17 22 15 3 =100
2000 - Bush speech 47 11 18 18 6 =100
2000 - Gore speech 45 20 20 9 6 =100
1996 - Dole speech 35 21 22 17 5 =100
1992 - GHW Bush speech 39 35 16 7 3 =100
23a. Do you think the Republican Party is more conservative than the
image it presented at this week's convention, OR that the party is
NOT more conservative than the image it presented?
23b. Would you say the party is A LOT more conservative or ONLY somewhat
more conservative?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
GOP Ideology vs. Image Presented
Current 2000 1996
18 A lot more conservative 20 16
21 Somewhat more conservative 27 26
30 Not more conservative 30 33
31 Didn't follow/Don't know 23 25
100 100 100
24. Please tell me if each of the following things that happened at the
convention this week makes you more likely or less likely to vote
for Bush and Cheney in November, or if it doesn't make much
difference either way. (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Does this make you more likely or less likely to vote
for Bush and Cheney, or does it not make much difference either
way?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less No diff. Not aware DK
a. Arizona Senator John
McCain's speech on
Monday
Current Total 20 6 37 34 3 =100
Trend
2000 - McCain speech
and endorsement 32 13 36 14 5 =100
b. Former New York City
Mayor Rudy Giuliani's
speech on Monday
Current Total 24 8 33 32 3 =100
c. Laura Bush's speech on
Tuesday
Current Total 25 7 36 30 2 =100
Trends
2004 - Teresa Heinz Kerry
speech 21 15 33 29 2 =100
2000 - Laura Bush speech 29 10 36 19 6 =100
d. California Governor
Arnold Schwarzenegger's
speech on Tuesday
Current Total 22 10 38 27 3 =100
e. The keynote speech by
U.S. Senator Zell
Miller, Democrat from
Georgia, on Wednesday
Current Total 21 14 30 31 4 =100
Republicans 39 6 27 25 3 =100
Democrats 7 23 34 31 5 =100
Independents 16 13 31 37 3 =100
Trend
2004 - Barack Obama DNC
keynote speech 24 5 34 35 2 =100
f. Vice president Dick
Cheney's acceptance
speech on Wednesday
Current Total 19 15 34 29 3 =100
Trends
2004 - Edwards speech 31 7 33 27 2 =100
2000 - Cheney speech 32 13 34 15 6 =100
ITEM G ASKED OF THOSE
INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
g. George W. Bush's
acceptance speech
on Thursday
Current Total 30 10 27 30 3 =100
Republicans 52 1 22 22 3 =100
Democrats 9 23 32 32 4 =100
Independents 26 8 27 36 3 =100
Trends
2004 - Kerry speech 32 8 31 28 1 =100
2000 - Bush speech 37 7 30 21 5 =100
2000 - Gore speech 40 11 21 24 4 =100
25. Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me
which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see
run for president in 2008. (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
RANDOMIZE) (Would you like him to run in 2008, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
a. John McCain
Current Total 48 36 16 =100
Republicans 47 39 14 =100
b. Rudy Giuliani
Current Total 50 37 13 =100
Republicans 65 24 11 =100
c. Senate Majority leader Bill Frist
Current Total 11 55 34 =100
Republicans 19 47 34 =100
d. Florida Governor Jeb Bush
Current Total 15 66 19 =100
Republicans 28 49 23 =100
e. New York Governor George Pataki
Current Total 15 55 30 =100
Republicans 13 52 35 =100
f. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the
Constitution were changed to
allow foreign-born U.S. citizens
to run
Current Total 22 66 12 =100
Republicans 30 57 13 =100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek
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Related links:
http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com
CONTACT:
Rosanna Maietta of Newsweek, +1-212-445-4859
NOTE TO EDITORS: To interview Senior Editor Marcus Mabry on the
poll, contact Rosanna Maietta at 212-445-4859.
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