Public still divided on whether invasion of Iraq strengthened or weakened
the war on terror
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Sept. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Public attitudes to a number of
key issues on Iraq are remarkably stable. The almost daily reports of bombings
and attacks, kidnappings and continued killing of Americans and Iraqis seem to
do little to change public opinion. Most adult Americans, it seems, have made
up their minds and neither the recent news from Iraq nor the campaign rhetoric
has had much impact on public opinion.
The country remains starkly divided. Almost equal numbers believe the
invasion of Iraq strengthened (43%) and weakened (41%) the war on terrorism.
And almost equal numbers believe that the U.S. government deliberately
exaggerated reports of weapons of mass destruction in order to increase
support for the war (45%) and that it tried to present the information
accurately (46%).
These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,018 U.S. adults
surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive(R) between September 9 and 13,
2004.
On some questions, critics of the war outnumber supporters, but the
margins are not big:
* A 55 to 36 percent majority believes that "what we were told by the
government before the war about weapons of mass destruction and links to
Al Qaeda" was "misleading" (even if only 45 percent believe that the
information was deliberately exaggerated).
* A 54 to 38 percent majority favors bringing most of the U.S. troops home
in the next year over keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq
until there is a stable government.
* A more modest 51 to 42 percent majority does not believe that the
invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the United States from another
terrorist attack.
So what?
These rather equally divided opinions on Iraq are one of the reasons why,
according to most polls, the election race is still close. If these attitudes
change between now and November - if more people come to believe that the
invasion strengthened the war on terror and has helped to make this country
safer, or if more people come to believe that the invasion has not helped to
make us safer - that would surely have a huge impact on who people will elect
as our next president.
TABLE 1
WERE U.S. GOVERNMENT'S STATEMENTS ABOUT IRAQ, TERRORISTS AND WEAPONS
ACCURATE OR INACCURATE?
"Do you believe that what we were told by the government before the Iraq war
about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and Iraq's links to Al Qaeda, the
terrorist organization, was generally accurate or misleading?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
June Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. April June Aug. Now
% % % % % % % % %
Generally accurate 55 47 44 45 40 40 44 37 36
Misleading 36 45 50 47 53 51 51 60 55
Not sure/Refused 10 8 6 8 6 9 5 3 8
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
BELIEVE U.S. GOVERNMENT DELIBERATELY EXAGGERATED/ACCURATELY PRESENTED
REPORTS OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION?
"Do you believe that the U.S. government deliberately exaggerated the reports
of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in order to increase support for war,
or do you think it tried to present the information accurately?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
June Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb. April June Aug. Now
% % % % % % % % %
Tried to present
accurately 56 53 49 50 51 50 50 51 46
Deliberately
exaggerated 37 40 41 45 43 43 44 44 45
Not sure/Refused 8 7 9 5 5 7 1 4 8
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
FAVOR KEEPING LARGE NUMBER OF U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ OR
BRINGING MOST HOME IN NEXT YEAR
"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a
stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Oct. Feb. April June Aug. Now
% % % % % %
Favor keeping a large
number of U.S. troops in
Iraq until there is a
stable government there 46 45 42 39 40 38
Favor bringing most of our
troops home in the next year 47 51 51 56 54 54
Not sure/Refused 7 4 8 6 5 7
NOTE: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
DID INVASION OF IRAQ STRENGTHEN/WEAKEN WAR ON TERROR?
"Do you think the invasion of Iraq strengthened or
weakened the war on terrorism?"
Base: All Adults
June Aug Now
% % %
Strengthened the war on terrorism 52 50 43
Weakened the war on terrorism 38 40 41
Not sure 10 10 16
TABLE 5
HAS INVASION OF IRAQ HELPED PROTECT U.S.?
"Do you think the invasion of Iraq has helped to protect the
United States from another terrorist attack or not?"
Base: All Adults
April June Aug. Now
% % % %
Has helped to protect the United States 43 41 43 42
No, has not helped to protect the United States 52 52 54 51
Not sure 5 7 3 7
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States
between September 9 and 13, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,018
adults (ages 18 years and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number
of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size
of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual
proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95
percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or
minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult
population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are
several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are
probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They
include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and
question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and
screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors
that may result from these factors.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
J22091
Q445, Q455, Q460, Q465, Q470
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com) is a global research
firm that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient
methods of investigation, analysis and application. Well known for The Harris
Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Rochester, New
York-based Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research to help
its clients around the world achieve clear, material and enduring results.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and
technology to advance market leadership through its U.S. offices and wholly
owned subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com), Paris-
based Novatris (http://www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive
Japan, recently acquired U.S.-based WirthlinWorldwide
(http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com) and through a global network of affiliate
firms. EOE M/F/D/V
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
The Harris Poll(R) #68, September 21, 2004
By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll(R), Harris Interactive
Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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Related links:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com
CONTACT:
Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo,
+1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive
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