Bush/Cheney, Kerry/Edwards in Dead Heat in Three-Way and Two-Way Race;
Bush/Cheney (48%) Lead Kerry/Edwards (47%) Among Likely Voters
13 Percent of Registered Voters Have Not Yet Decided Who to Vote for
37 Percent of Kerry Voters Say This Year's Election is the 'Single Most
Important' Election of Their Lifetime
NEW YORK, Oct. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- With just nine days left before the
election, the candidates remain in a statistical dead-heat, both amongst
registered and likely voters, in a two-way and three-way trial heat including
Independent Party Candidate Ralph Nader, according to the latest Newsweek
Poll.
In a three-way heat, Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards are tied at 46 percent,
with Nader at two percent, among registered voters. Among likely voters,
Bush/Cheney lead Kerry/Edwards (48% to 46%), with Nader at one percent. In a
two-way race among registered voters, Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards are tied
at 47 percent (6% are undecided). And among likely voters, the Bush/Cheney
ticket leads 48 percent to 47 percent for Kerry/Edwards. That marks a four-
point narrowing between the two tickets among likely voters. Bush/Cheney led
among likely voters 50 percent to 45 percent according to last weekend's
Newsweek Poll (Oct. 14-15). Thirteen percent of registered voters say they
still have not made up their minds about who to vote for.
With the majority of Americans dissatisfied with the way things are going
in the U.S. at this time (56%) than satisfied (40%), and with more people
disapproving of the president's handling of his job (47%) than approving
(46%), the majority of registered voters (52%) think George Bush is more
likely to be elected than John Kerry (30%). However, registered and likely
voters are almost evenly split on whether they want to see Bush re-elected
(46% of registered voters say yes, vs. 48% who say no; the numbers are similar
among likely voters: 47% yes vs. 48% no).
More registered voters say terrorism and homeland security (25%) is the
most important issue in determining their vote. Twenty-one percent say the
situation in Iraq, 20 percent say the economy, and 13 percent say health care,
including Medicare.
As to which of the two candidates would better handle specific issues,
Bush is losing some ground to Kerry on the economy since the last Newsweek
Poll (44% to 48% for Kerry now vs. 45% to 48% for Kerry last week ), health
care (40% to 50% for Kerry now vs. 42% to 50% for Kerry last week), taxes (47%
to 45% for Bush this week vs. 49% to 42% for Bush last week), gay marriage
(39% to 43% for Kerry this week vs. 41% to 39% for Bush last week), education
(43% to 46% for Kerry this week vs. 45% for both candidates last week), and
abortion (42% to 44% for Kerry this week vs. 44% to 42% for Bush last week).
However, Bush has gained some ground on Kerry on terrorism and homeland
security (55% to 37% for Bush now vs. 54% to 38% for Bush last week) and
social security (42% to 48% for Kerry this week vs. 40% to 46% for Kerry last
week). And regarding taxes, more registered voters think that Bush's economic
and tax policies have hurt the economy (43%) than helped it (33%).
Though the majority of registered voters say going to war in Iraq has not
made us safer (53% vs. 42% who say it has), 38 percent of them say that if
John Kerry is elected president the country will be more vulnerable to a
terrorist attack; 36 percent say electing Kerry would make the country about
as vulnerable as if Bush were elected, and 20 percent say Kerry would make the
country less vulnerable. But more Kerry supporters view this race as more
crucial than the president's. Fully 77 percent of Kerry supporters view Nov.
2 as the "single most important election of [their] lifetime" (37 percent) or
more important than most other elections (40 percent). In comparison, only 27
percent of Bush supporters view this as the single most important election of
their lifetime, while 35 percent view it as more important than most other
elections; 35 percent of Bush supporters and 21 percent of Kerry supporters
say this election is about as important as any other election.
On a separate topic, with record amounts of money spent on advertising
this election year by both camps, and with 72 percent of registered voters
saying they've seen TV ads for Bush in recent weeks and 71 percent saying
they've seen TV ads for Kerry, most people say the ads haven't made a
difference (50% for Bush's ads, 46% for Kerry's). Also, the majority of
registered voters say they have not be contacted by campaign or political
organizations asking to vote for Bush (84%) or Kerry (81%). Yet, 33 percent
of Labor Union households say they've been contacted about voting for Kerry
and 26 percent of those households have been contacted about voting for Bush.
And if the election for the U.S. Congress were held today, an equal number
of registered voters (45%) say they would vote for Republican candidates and
Democratic candidates.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed
by telephone 1,008 registered voters aged 18 and older on Oct. 21-22, 2004.
The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. This Newsweek
Poll is part of the November 1 issue (on newsstands Monday, October 25).
(Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com. Click
"Pressroom.")
Newsweek Poll
Turnout and Ad Wars
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(10/23/04)
N = 1,008 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: October 21-22, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,126 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
880 Likely voters (plus or minus 4) (definition noted below)
98 Swing voters (plus or minus 11) (definition noted below)
95 First-time voters (plus or minus 11) (definition noted below)
227 Early voters (plus or minus 8) (definition noted below)
363 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
307 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
296 Independents (plus or minus 7)
248 White Evangelical Protestants (plus or minus 7)
227 White Non-Evangelical Protestants (plus or minus 8)
189 White Catholics (plus or minus 8)
181 Non-whites (plus or minus 8)
485 Men (plus or minus 5)
523 Women (plus or minus 5)
116 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
339 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
298 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
230 65+ (plus or minus 8)
275 $75,000+ (plus or minus 7)
206 $50,000 - $74,999 (plus or minus 8)
173 $30,000 - $49,999 (plus or minus 9)
205 Under $30,000 (plus or minus 8)
172 Labor Union Households (plus or minus 9)
822 Non-Labor Union Households (plus or minus 4)
313 Republican states (plus or minus 6)
418 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
277 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
489 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
458 Kerry/Edwards supporters (plus or minus 5)
746 Have seen Bush ads (plus or minus 4)
734 Have seen Kerry ads (plus or minus 4)
NOTES:
Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and region.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute
percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
Likely voters are determined based on response to seven questions about
voting intentions, voting history, general interest in politics, interest
in the 2004 election, and knowledge of the voting process. Likely voter
results for this poll assume a turnout level comparable to 1992, when an
estimated 55% of all adult U.S. residents and 61% of citizens eligible to
vote cast a ballot for president.
Swing voters are defined as those who plan to vote but say they have not
yet made up their mind about who to support ("no/don't know in Q.4).
First-time voters are those who say they have never previously voted in a
presidential election (Q.3).
Early voters are defined as those who have already voted or have taken
steps to vote by absentee ballot or other means before November 2nd.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following
three choices for president and vice president... (INSERT AND
ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry
and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo,
the Independent or third party candidates. Who would you vote for?
[IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO] As
of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 46 46 2 6 =100
Likely voters 48 46 1 5 =100
Swing voters 33 41 5 21 =100
First-time
voters 44 47 4 5 =100
Early voters 44 50 2 4 =100
White
Evangelical
Prot. 76 18 0 6 =100
White
Non-Evan. 47 47 1 5 =100
Prot.
White
Catholics 53 38 3 6 =100
Non-whites 20 67 3 10 =100
Men 51 43 * 6 =100
Women 42 49 3 6 =100
18-29 40 54 3 3 =100
30-49 48 43 1 8 =100
50-64 51 42 2 5 =100
65+ 43 48 1 8 =100
$75,000+ 55 41 1 3 =100
$50,000-$74,999 53 43 1 3 =100
$30,000-$49,999 46 45 1 8 =100
Under $30,000 35 55 3 7 =100
Labor Union HH 35 61 2 2 =100
Non-Labor Union HH 49 43 1 7 =100
Republicans 92 6 * 2 =100
Democrats 9 84 1 6 =100
Independents 38 52 4 6 =100
Republican states 51 41 0 8 =100
Swing states 48 45 2 5 =100
Democratic states 40 52 2 6 =100
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Trends
(RVs)
(10/14-15/04) 48 46 1 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 49 43 2 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 3 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Trend
(LVs)
(10/14-15/04) 50 44 1 5 =100
Note: "Nader/Camejo" only offered as a choice in states where Nader is on
the ballot. Trends before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different
question wording that did not include vice presidential candidates'
names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs 10/14- 9/30- 9/9- 9/2- 7/29-
15/04 10/2/04 10/04 3/04 30/04
Bush/Cheney Voters
35 38 Strong 37 32 35 39 30
11 10 Not Strong 11 13 14 13 12
Kerry/Edwards
Voters
33 35 Strong 30 31 26 25 31
13 11 Not Strong 16 16 17 16 18
Nader/Camejo
Voters
1 * Strong 0 1 1 1 *
1 1 Not Strong 1 1 1 2 3
6 5 Undecided/Other 5 6 6 4 6
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2a/b. What if you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE)
Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, and Kerry and Edwards, the
Democrats. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?
[IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Undecided/Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Current Total 47 47 6 =100
Likely voters 48 47 5 =100
Swing voters 35 44 21 =100
Trends (RVs)
(10/14-15/04) 48 47 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 49 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 45 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 43 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 52 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 51 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 45 46 9 =100
(4/8-9/04) 43 50 7 =100
(3/25-26/04) 47 48 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 48 4 =100
Trend (LVs)
(10/14-15/04) 50 45 5 =100
Note: Results combine Q1a/b results with Q2a/b choice of Nader supporters.
Question wording somewhat different in polls prior to 10/14-15/04.
Trends prior to 7/8-9/04 did not include vice presidential
candidates' names.
3. [IF ALREADY VOTED EARLY] Is this the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not? [IF HAVEN'T VOTED EARLY] If
you vote this year, will it be the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs
15 9 Yes, first time voter (including all not eligible to vote
before 2004)
84 91 No, not the first time
0 0 Don't know
100 100
4. Have you MADE UP YOUR MIND about who to vote for in the PRESIDENTIAL
election, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No/Don't know Don't plan to
vote/DK
Current Total 84 13 3 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 90 9 1 =100
Kerry/Edwards supporters 85 12 3 =100
2004 Trend (RVs)
(10/14-15/04) 85 11 4 =100
Past Election Trends (RVs)
(10/25-27/00) 78 19 3 =100
(10/21-11/2/96) 74 21 5 =100
(10/20-11/2/92) 73 27 * =100
Note: "Yes" includes those who report they already voted. Trends for 1996
and 1992 elections are from Markle Foundation/PSRA surveys.
5a/b. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you
vote for... the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district? As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican or the Democrat
(ROTATE)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Rep/Lean Dem/Lean Dem Undecided/Other
Rep
Current Total 45 45 10 =100
Likely voters 47 46 7 =100
2004 Trends (RVs)
(10/14-15/04) 43 46 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 42 49 9 =100
2004 Trend (LVs)
(10/14-15/04) 46 44 10 =100
2000 Trends
(10/25-27/00) RVs 41 48 11 =100
(10/25-27/00) LVs 44 46 10 =100
6. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never
heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what about...
(INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND ROTATE ITEMS C
& D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard DK
of
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 50 47 * 3 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 46 0 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 * 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 40 * 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard DK
of
b. John Kerry
Current Total 50 45 * 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 51 44 * 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 * 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 1 7 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 46 * 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current Total 48 44 2 6 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 48 43 2 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 44 47 1 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 1 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 50 40 1 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current Total 48 37 5 10 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 49 37 4 10 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 31 3 16 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 37 3 15 =100
(9/2-3/04) 46 33 5 16 =100
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
7. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 40 56 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 40 55 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 38 57 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 39 53 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner
abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's
capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic
Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research Center;
7/79-6/92 Gallup.
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 47 46 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from January 2004 to present; earlier trends
selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
Center.
9. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 46 48 6 =100
Likely voters 47 48 5 =100
Trends (RVs)
(10/14-15/04) 47 48 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
10. Regardless of which presidential candidate you personally support, who
do you think is more likely to win in November ... George W. Bush
(or) John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry DK
Current Total 52 30 18 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 55 29 16 =100
(9/9-10/04) 60 27 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 44 13 =100
(7/8-9/04) 47 38 15 =100
10a. Compared to past presidential elections during your lifetime, do you
see the 2004 election as ... the SINGLE MOST important election of
your lifetime, more important than most other elections, about as
important, OR less important than most other elections?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Single Most More About As Less DK
Imp. Imp. Imp. Imp.
Current Total 32 36 29 2 1 =100
Bush/Cheney
supporters 27 35 35 2 1 =100
Kerry/Edwards
supporters 37 40 21 2 * =100
18-29 33 36 28 2 1 =100
30-49 30 34 32 3 * =100
50-64 32 36 28 2 2 =100
65+ 35 37 21 5 2 =100
Questions 11 and 12 were asked in random order; in each question series,
the order in which the items were read was rotated with item i always asked
last.
11. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, No, DK
describes does not
a. Has strong leadership
qualities
Current Total 64 34 2 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 63 33 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/2-3/04) 65 33 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 54 41 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 56 39 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 55 39 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 62 33 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 47 49 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 47 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 67 29 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 66 29 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 65 31 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 67 29 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 67 29 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 65 31 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 68 28 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 66 29 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 54 43 3 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 53 44 3 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 42 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 57 40 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 53 44 3 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 53 43 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 45 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 41 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 59 37 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 61 35 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 59 37 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 37 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 59 36 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 64 29 7 =100
i. Is too conservative
Current Total 36 56 8 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 32 61 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 58 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 33 61 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 32 61 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
12. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, No, DK
describes does not
a. Has strong leadership
qualities
Current Total 53 40 7 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 56 36 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 40 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 41 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 51 39 10 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 52 39 9 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 33 10 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 35 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 39 14 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 55 38 7 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 54 39 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 34 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 36 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 38 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 61 31 8 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 59 34 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 63 31 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 32 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 59 33 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 45 47 8 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 47 45 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 45 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 47 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 47 46 7 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 47 45 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 40 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 48 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 48 46 6 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 48 48 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 42 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 48 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 78 17 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 78 17 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 80 15 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 74 18 8 =100
i. Is too liberal
Current Total 44 47 9 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 43 48 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 43 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
13. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 10/14- 9/30- 9/9- 9/2-
15/04 10/2/04 10/04 3/04
25 Terrorism and homeland
security 22 26 25 28
21 The situation in Iraq 20 20 15 11
20 The economy 16 21 21 21
13 Health care, including
Medicare 14 11 14 13
7 American jobs and foreign
competition 8 8 9 9
5 Education 5 5 7 6
2 Taxes 3 1 2 3
2 Other (VOL.) 5 3 3 3
5 Don't know 7 5 4 6
100 100 100 100 100
14. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to
a better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(vol) (vol)
a. The economy
Current Total 44 48 2 2 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 45 48 1 2 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 39 52 1 3 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 46 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 43 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in Iraq
Current Total 51 40 1 3 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 51 41 1 2 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 44 1 3 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 39 * 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 37 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and homeland
security
Current Total 55 37 2 2 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 54 38 2 1 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 2 2 4
(9/9-10/04) 58 34 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 60 32 2 2 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care, including
Medicare
Current Total 40 50 1 4 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 42 50 1 2 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 34 56 1 4 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 40 50 1 3 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 45 2 2 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. American jobs and foreign
competition
Current Total 40 49 2 3 6 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 40 49 1 3 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 54 1 3 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 1 4 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
f. Education
Current Total 43 46 3 3 5 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 45 45 2 2 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 46 2 2 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 48 42 2 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
g. Taxes
Current Total 47 45 1 3 4 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 49 42 2 2 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 2 4 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 38 1 2 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
h. The environment
Current Total 32 56 3 2 7 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 34 51 2 4 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 36 50 2 2 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 29 59 2 2 8 =100
i. Gay marriage
Current Total 39 43 2 6 10 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 41 39 3 7 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 36 1 6 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 33 1 5 15 =100
(2/5-6/04) 38 29 2 5 26 =100
j. Stem cell research
Current Total 31 54 2 2 11 =100
Trends
(10/14-15/04) 32 54 1 3 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 26 53 1 3 17 =100
k. Abortion
Current Total 42 44 1 3 10 =100
Trend
(10/14-15/04) 44 42 2 4 8 =100
l. Social Security
Current Total 42 48 2 3 5 =100
Trend
(10/14-15/04) 40 46 2 5 7 =100
15. All in all, do you think George W. Bush's economic and tax policies
have done more to help or hurt economic conditions in this country --
or haven't had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/2-3/04 7/29-30/04
33 Help 38 33
43 Hurt 38 43
19 Not much effect 19 20
5 Don't know 5 4
100 100 100
16. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
safer from terrorism, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 42 53 5 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 41 55 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 50 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 38 57 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 53 3 =100
17. If John Kerry is elected president in November, do you think this
country would be MORE vulnerable or LESS vulnerable to a terrorist
attack than it would be if George W. Bush is re-elected -- or about as
vulnerable with Kerry as with Bush?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/9-10/04
38 More vulnerable 38
20 Less vulnerable 20
36 About as vulnerable 35
6 Don't know 7
100 100
Questions 18a and 18b were asked in random order
18a. Because of Iraq, do you think the military draft is likely to be
reinstated if GEORGE W. BUSH is re-elected in November?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/30-10/2/04
36 Yes, likely to be reinstated 38
56 No, not likely 51
8 Don't know 11
100 100
18b. Because of Iraq, do you think the military draft is likely to be
reinstated if JOHN KERRY is elected in November?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/30-10/2/04
20 Yes, likely to be reinstated 18
66 No, not likely 67
14 Don't know 15
100 100
19. Now, thinking about the tone of the campaigns run by the major party
candidates this year, which -- if any -- do you think has been TOO
NEGATIVE OR NASTY...(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush- Kerry- Both Neither DK
Cheney Edwards
Current Total 23 24 36 13 4 =100
Swing States 25 25 36 11 3 =100
2004 Trend =100
(9/9-10/04) 25 21 33 15 6 =100
=100
2000 Trends
(9/7-8/00) Bush and Gore
campaigns 25 18 17 29 11 =100
(8/24-25/00) Bush and Gore 22 18 13 37 10 =100
campaigns
Questions 20-22 and 23-25 were asked in random order
20. Have you personally seen any TV ads for GEORGE W. BUSH in recent
weeks?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/9-10/04
72 Yes, have 65
26 No, have not 33
2 Don't know 2
100 100
21. Has seeing these ads made you more likely or less likely to vote for
Bush, or have they not made much difference either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Swing States
8 More likely 8
13 Less likely 16
50 Haven't made a difference 58
28 Haven't seen Bush ads 18
1 Don't know *
100 100
22. Based on the ads you've seen, in general, do you think the Bush ads
... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE), or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO HAVE SEEN BUSH ADS
Yes No DK
a. Are too negative
Current Total 46 51 3 =100
b. Are misleading or distorted
Current Total 50 46 4 =100
c. Provide useful information
Current Total 41 56 3 =100
23. Have you personally seen any TV ads for JOHN KERRY in recent weeks?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 9/9-10/04
71 Yes, have 66
27 No, have not 32
2 Don't know 2
100 100
24. Has seeing these ads made you more likely or less likely to vote for
Kerry, or have they not made much difference either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Swing States
11 More likely 14
14 Less likely 17
46 Haven't made a difference 53
29 Haven't seen Kerry ads 15
* Don't know 1
100 100
25. Based on the ads you've seen, in general, do you think the Kerry ads
... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE), or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS WHO HAVE SEEN KERRY ADS
Yes No DK
a. Are too negative
Current Total 47 49 4 =100
b. Are misleading or distorted
Current Total 49 46 5 =100
c. Provide useful information
Current Total 40 56 4 =100
26. In recent weeks, have you personally been contacted by any campaign or
political organization asking you to vote for ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, have No/DK
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 16 84 =100
Swing Voters 13 87 =100
White Evangelical Prot. 19 81 =100
White Non-Evan. Prot. 19 81 =100
White Catholics 21 79 =100
Non-whites 9 91 =100
Labor Union Households 26 74 =100
Non-Labor Union Households 15 85 =100
Republican states 12 88 =100
Swing states 26 74 =100
Democratic states 7 93 =100
b. John Kerry
Current Total 19 81 =100
Swing Voters 12 88 =100
White Evangelical Prot. 15 85 =100
White Non-Evan. Prot. 22 78 =100
White Catholics 18 82 =100
Non-whites 15 85 =100
Labor Union Households 33 67 =100
Non-Labor Union Households 15 85 =100
Republican states 8 92 =100
Swing states 29 71 =100
Democratic states 12 88 =100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek
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Related links:
http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com
CONTACT:
Rosanna Maietta of Newsweek, +1-212-445-4859
NOTE TO EDITORS: To interview Senior Editor Marcus Mabry, call
Rosanna Maietta at 212-445-4859.
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