Public Remains Equally Split as to Whether Military Action Was Right or Wrong
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Oct. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The election campaign and the
presidential debates have been full of charges and countercharges, criticism
and defense about the war in Iraq but none of this has had any measurable
effect on public opinion. More than on most issues, the public seems to have
made up its mind on Iraq many months ago and nothing that people see or hear
appears to change their opinions.
In the latest Harris Poll, conducted online by Harris Interactive(R)
between October 21 and 25, 2004, among a sample of 3,397 U.S. adults, the
public remains equally divided on whether taking military action was the right
thing (43%) or the wrong thing (45%) to do. In June, the public was split 44
to 42 percent, in July 43 to 42 percent, and in September 43 to 43 percent.
Other key questions about Iraq also show little change in attitudes over
the last several months:
* More people (by 56% to 43%) continue to give President Bush more
negative than positive ratings on his handling of Iraq, numbers which
have scarcely changed since April this year.
* Approximately half (51%) of adults still believe the situation for U.S.
troops in Iraq is getting worse and 18 percent think it is getting
better, similar to the numbers in June, July and September.
If the White House is looking for any shred of good news in this survey it
might be that 31 percent now say they are confident that U.S. policy in Iraq
will be successful. Of course this is not a big number but it is somewhat
higher than it was in April, May, June, July or September. However, 51
percent still say they are not confident.
TABLE 1
RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ
"Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the
issue of Iraq over the last several months?"
Base: All Adults
2003
Mar. April May July Sept. Nov.
% % % % % %
Positive (NET) 56 67 63 49 47 41
Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15
Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26
Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58
Only fair 16 15 18 22 19 19
Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38
Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1
2004
Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Sept. Now
% % % % % % % % %
Positive (NET) 51 48 49 43 42 41 39 41 43
Excellent 20 23 18 15 13 13 15 14 15
Pretty good 31 26 31 29 29 27 24 27 28
Negative (NET) 46 51 49 55 56 58 58 58 56
Only fair 20 19 19 18 18 19 17 17 17
Poor 26 32 30 37 39 39 40 41 39
Not sure 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 1
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2
CONFIDENT THAT U.S. POLICIES WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
"How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Now
% % % % % % % % % % %
Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 25 25 26 29 31
Not confident 46 51 45 48 46 52 55 53 51 54 51
Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 22 23 18 18
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 3
WAS MILITARY ACTION THE RIGHT THING TO DO?
"Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking
military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"
Base: All Adults
2003 2004
Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Now
% % % % % % % % % % %
Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 47 44 43 43 43
Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33 37 38 42 42 43 45
Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 14 14 15 13 11
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
IS SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS GETTING BETTER OR WORSE
"Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is ...?"
Base: All Adults
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Sept. Now
% % % % % % % % %
Getting better 24 22 24 9 11 19 18 15 18
Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 45 54 51
No real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 30 26 24
Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between
October 21 and 25, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 3,397 adults.
Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were
weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions
in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for
respondents' propensity to be online.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95
percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or
minus 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult
population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are
several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are
probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They
include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and
question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that
may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability
sample.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited
without the express written permission of Harris Interactive.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com), the 13th
largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester,
N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting
with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and
application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based
research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research
to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and
technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned
subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com), Paris-based
Novatris (http://www.novatris.com), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan,
through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com), a
Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in
the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market
research companies. EOE M/F/D/V.
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
The Harris Poll(R) #84, October 29, 2004
By Humphrey Taylor, chairman of The Harris Poll, Harris Interactive.
Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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Related links:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com
http://www.harrispollonline.com
CONTACT:
Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo,
+1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive
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