Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards Among Likely Voters in Three-Way Race (50% to
44%), and In Two-Way Trial Heat (51% to 45%)
Registered Independents Support Bush Over Kerry 47 Percent to 38 Percent
59 Percent of Registered Voters Say They Expect Major Problems or Disputes On
Election Day; 54 Percent Think the Vote Will Be So Close That Courts Will
Decide the Winner
NEW YORK, Oct. 30 /PRNewswire/ -- With three days to go until the
election, the Bush/Cheney ticket is gaining ground against the Kerry/Edwards
ticket among likely voters in a three-way and two-way trial heat, according to
the latest Newsweek Poll, taken over three days (Oct. 27-29). In a three-way
trial heat among likely voters, Bush/Cheney lead Kerry/Edwards 50 percent to
44 percent, with Nader/Camejo at one percent. That's still a statistical dead
heat and within the poll's margin of error. However, it's up from last week's
Poll (48% for Bush to 46% for Kerry and 1% Nader). And in a two-way trial
heat among likely voters, Bush/Cheney lead Kerry/Edwards 51 percent to 45
percent. That's up from last week's 48 percent for Bush/Cheney to 47 percent
for Kerry/Edwards, and within the margin of error.
Among registered voters the race is much closer: in a three-way race,
Bush/Cheney lead Kerry/Edwards 48 percent to 44 percent with Nader at one
percent. In a two-way race, Bush/Cheney lead 48 percent to 45 percent. That
falls within the margin of error of plus or minus four points. Last week,
Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards were tied in a three-way race (Nader was at 2%)
among registered voters at 46 percent each and in a two-way race at 47 percent
each.
A strong 59-percent majority of registered voters say they expect major
problems or disputes over the voting on Election Day. Only 34 percent think
it will go smoothly. And a 54-percent majority thinks it is likely that the
vote will be so close that there will not be a clear winner on Tuesday night
and the courts will determine the winner. Forty percent think that's not
likely to happen.
Nine percent of registered voters and six percent of likely voters still
say they have not made up their mind about who to vote for. Of those who have
already decided who to vote for, 50 percent decided before the political
conventions, 12 percent decided since the debates, 10 percent decided in
September before the debates and another 11 percent decided in the summer,
around the time of the political conventions.
For more registered voters, terrorism and homeland security are the most
important issues this year in determining their vote (24%). Twenty-one
percent say the situation in Iraq, 20 percent say the economy, and 12 percent
say health care.
Regarding the situation in Iraq, the majority of registered voters (51%)
think the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against that
country, down from 55 percent in the Sept. 2-3 Newsweek Poll (45% disagree, up
7% from the Sept. Poll). Yet, more people (55%) say that going to war there
has not made America safer from terrorism (42% say it has). And 41 percent of
registered voters say they are either very worried (13%) or somewhat worried
(28%) that they or someone in their family might become a victim of terrorism.
As to pre-war intelligence that showed Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction, more registered voters (50%) think the Bush administration
misinterpreted or misanalyzed it (43% say they didn't) than purposely misled
the public about it (43%; 54% say they did not mislead the public
purposefully). And as to how long the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq, 28
percent say less than one year, 22 percent say one to two years and 17 percent
say three to five years. Twelve percent say we should leave troops there more
than 10 years and only 7 percent say we should bring them home now.
Meanwhile, a majority of Americans (56%) are dissatisfied with the way
things are going in the U.S. at this time (39 percent are satisfied) and more
Americans disapprove of George Bush's handling of his job (47%) than approve
(46%). Yet more people would like to see him re-elected (48%, up from 46% in
last week's Newsweek Poll) than not (46%, down from 48% last week). However,
among likely voters, the majority (50%) would like to see him re-elected than
not (45%). And more registered voters believe that, regardless of which
presidential candidate they support, President Bush will be elected (54%)
instead of Sen. Kerry (30%).
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed
by telephone 1,005 registered voters aged 18 and older on Oct. 27-29, 2004.
The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. This Newsweek
Poll is part of the November 8 issue (on newsstands Monday, November 1).
(Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com. Click
"Pressroom.")
Newsweek Poll
The Final Week
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(10/30/04)
N = 1,005 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: October 27-29, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,117 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,005 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
882 Likely voters (plus or minus 4) (definition noted below)
83 Swing voters (plus or minus 12) (definition noted below)
99 First-time voters (plus or minus 11) (definition noted below)
151 Already voted (plus or minus 9)
345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
316 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
304 Independents (plus or minus 6)
156 Time of decision: Since debates (plus or minus 9)
742 Time of decision: Before debates (plus or minus 4)
244 White Evangelical Protestants (plus or minus 7)
237 White Non-Evangelical Protestants (plus or minus 7)
183 White Catholics (plus or minus 8)
147 Non-whites (plus or minus 8)
486 Men (plus or minus 5)
519 Women (plus or minus 5)
122 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
374 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
258 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
223 65+ (plus or minus 8)
274 $75,000+ (plus or minus 7)
186 $50,000 - $74,999 (plus or minus 8)
202 $30,000 - $49,999 (plus or minus 8)
205 Under $30,000 (plus or minus 8)
153 Labor Union Households (plus or minus 9)
843 Non-Labor Union Households (plus or minus 4)
321 Republican states (plus or minus 6)
397 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
287 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
490 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
442 Kerry/Edwards supporters (plus or minus 5)
NOTES:
Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and region.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute
percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
Likely voters are determined based on response to seven questions about
voting intentions, voting history, general interest in politics, interest
in the 2004 election, and knowledge of the voting process. Likely voter
results for this poll assume a turnout level comparable to 1992, when an
estimated 55% of all adult U.S. residents and 61% of citizens eligible to
vote cast a ballot for president.
Swing voters are defined as those who plan to vote but say they have not
yet made up their mind about who to support ("no/don't know in Q.4).
First-time voters are those who say they have never previously voted in a
presidential election (Q.3).
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following
three choices for president and vice president... (INSERT AND
ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry
and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo,
the Independent or third party candidates. Who would you vote for?
[IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO] As
of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 48 44 1 7 =100
Likely voters 50 44 1 5 =100
Swing voters 31 25 4 40 =100
First-time
voters 44 47 2 7 =100
Already voted 49 46 1 4 =100
Decision 45 49 2 4 =100
Since
Debates
Decision 52 45 1 2 =100
Before
Debates
White
Evangelical
Prot. 77 20 0 3 =100
White
Non-Evan.
Prot. 52 41 * 7 =100
White
Catholics 47 41 2 10 =100
Non-whites 28 66 2 4 =100
Men 51 39 2 8 =100
Women 44 49 1 6 =100
18-29 38 52 2 8 =100
30-49 54 40 1 5 =100
50-64 48 45 * 7 =100
65+ 47 44 1 8 =100
$75,000+ 52 43 1 4 =100
$50,000-$74,9
99 51 44 1 4 =100
$30,000-$49,9
99 53 39 3 5 =100
Under $30,000 39 52 1 8 =100
Labor Union
HH 54 42 1 3 =100
Non-Labor 47 44 1 8 =100
Union
HH
Republicans 91 5 1 3 =100
Democrats 9 88 * 3 =100
Independents 47 38 3 12 =100
Republican
states 54 40 1 5 =100
Swing states 49 43 2 6 =100
Democratic
states 40 49 1 10 =100
Q.1a/b continued ...
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Trends
(RVs)
(10/21-22/04) 46 46 2 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 48 46 1 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 49 43 2 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 3 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Trends
(LVs)
(10/21-22/04) 48 46 1 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 50 44 1 5 =100
Note: "Nader/Camejo" only offered as a choice in states where Nader is on
the ballot. Trends before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different
question wording that did not include vice presidential candidates'
names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs 10/21- 10/14- 9/30- 9/9- 9/2-
22/04 15/04 10/2/04 10/04 3/04
Bush/Cheney Voters
39 44 Strong 35 37 32 35 39
9 6 Not Strong 11 11 13 14 13
Kerry/Edwards Voters
31 34 Strong 33 30 31 26 25
13 10 Not Strong 13 16 16 17 16
Nader/Camejo Voters
* * Strong 1 0 1 1 1
1 1 Not Strong 1 1 1 1 2
7 5 Undecided/Other 6 5 6 6 4
100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: "Strong support" in the current and 10/21-22 poll includes those
who report having already voted for the ticket. 2a/b. What if you
HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) Bush and
Cheney, the Republicans, and Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats. If
the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT
SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the Republicans or
Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Undecided/Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Current Total 48 45 7 =100
Likely voters 51 45 4 =100
Swing voters 32 27 41 =100
Trends (RVs)
(10/21-22/04) 47 47 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 48 47 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 49 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 45 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 43 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 52 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 51 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 45 46 9 =100
(4/8-9/04) 43 50 7 =100
(3/25-26/04) 47 48 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 48 4 =100
Trends (LVs)
(10/21-22/04) 48 47 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 50 45 5 =100
Note: Results combine Q1a/b results with Q2a/b choice of Nader supporters.
Question wording somewhat different in polls prior to 10/14-15/04.
Trends prior to 7/8-9/04 did not include vice presidential
candidates' names.
LV4. Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the presidential election on
November 2nd, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs
86 82 Yes, plan to vote (including those who plan to vote by
mail/absentee ballot)
2 0 No, do not plan to vote
12 18 Already voted
* 0 Don't know
100 100
3. [IF ALREADY VOTED EARLY] Is this the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not? [IF HAVEN'T VOTED EARLY] If
you vote this year, will it be the FIRST TIME you have voted in a
general election for president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total LVs
15 9 Yes, first time voter (including all not eligible to vote
before 2004)
85 91 No, not the first time
* 0 Don't know
100 100
4. Have you MADE UP YOUR MIND about who to vote for in the PRESIDENTIAL
election, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No/Don't know Don't plan to
vote/DK
Current Total 89 9 2 =100
Likely voters 94 6 0 =100
Bush/Cheney supporters 93 6 1 =100
Kerry/Edwards supporters 93 5 2 =100
2004 Trend (RVs)
(10/21-22/04) 84 13 3 =100
(10/14-15/04) 85 11 4 =100
Past Election Trends (RVs)
(10/31-11/2/00) 83 12 5 =100
(10/21-11/2/96) 74 21 5 =100
(10/20-11/2/92) 73 27 * =100
Note: "Yes" includes those who report they already voted. Trends for 1996
and 1992 elections are from Markle Foundation/PSRA surveys.
4a. When did you make up your mind (about who to vote for in the
presidential election)? Was it... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 10/31-11/2/00
9 Still deciding 12
1 In the last day or two 6
4 In the past week 8
12 Since the debates 16
10 In September, before the debates 14
11 In the summer, around the time of the political 12
conventions
50 Before the political conventions 26
2 Don't plan to vote/Don't know 5
1 Don't know 1
100 100
5a/b. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you
vote for... the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district? As of
TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican or the Democrat
(ROTATE)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Rep/Lean Dem/Lean Dem Undecided/Other
Rep
Current Total 46 45 9 =100
Likely voters 49 44 7 =100
2004 Trends (RVs)
(10/21-22/04) 45 45 10 =100
(10/14-15/04) 43 46 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 42 49 9 =100
2004 Trends (LVs)
(10/21-22/04) 47 46 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 46 44 10 =100
2000 Trends
(10/31-11/2/00)
RVs 41 50 9 =100
(10/31-11/2/00)
LVs 44 48 8 =100
6. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never
heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what about...
(INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND ROTATE ITEMS C
& D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard DK
of
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 52 43 0 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 50 47 * 3 =100
(10/14-15/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 46 0 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 * 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 40 * 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
b. John Kerry
Current Total 47 46 * 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 50 45 * 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 51 44 * 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 * 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 1 7 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 46 * 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current Total 47 43 1 9 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 48 44 2 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 48 43 2 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 44 47 1 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 1 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 50 40 1 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current Total 46 42 1 11 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 48 37 5 10 =100
(10/14-15/04) 49 37 4 10 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 31 3 16 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 37 3 15 =100
(9/2-3/04) 46 33 5 16 =100
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
7. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 39 56 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 40 56 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 40 55 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 38 57 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 39 53 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner
abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's
capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research Center;
7/79-6/92 Gallup.
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 46 47 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 47 46 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from January 2004 to present; earlier trends
selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
Center.
9. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 48 46 6 =100
Likely voters 50 45 5 =100
Trends (RVs)
(10/21-22/04) 46 48 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 47 48 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 46 48 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
10. Regardless of which presidential candidate you personally support, who
do you think is more likely to win in November ... George W. Bush
(or) John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry DK
Current Total 54 30 16 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 52 30 18 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 55 29 16 =100
(9/9-10/04) 60 27 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 44 13 =100
(7/8-9/04) 47 38 15 =100
11. Compared to past presidential elections during your lifetime, do you
see the 2004 election as ... the SINGLE MOST important election of
your lifetime, more important than most other elections, about as
important, OR less important than most other elections?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Single Most More Imp. About As Less Imp. DK
Imp. Imp.
Current Total 31 36 30 2 1 =100
Bush/Cheney
supporters 31 36 31 1 1 =100
Kerry/Edwards
supporters 35 37 25 1 2 =100
Trend
(10/21-22/04) 32 36 29 2 1 =100
12a. Do you expect the voting next Tuesday to go smoothly OR that there
will be major problems and disputes over the voting, like there were
in Florida in 2000?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
34 Will go smoothly
59 Expect major problems
7 Don't know
100
12b. Do you think it is likely or not likely that the presidential
election will be so close that we won't know the outcome on election
night and the courts will determine the winner?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
54 Likely
40 Not likely
6 Don't know
100
Questions 13 and 14 were asked in random order; in each question series,
the order in which the items were read was rotated with item i always asked
last.
13. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, No, DK
describes does not
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 63 34 3 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 64 34 2 =100
(10/14-15/04) 63 33 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/2-3/04) 65 33 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 55 41 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 54 41 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 56 39 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 55 39 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 62 33 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 50 46 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 47 49 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 47 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 68 28 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 67 29 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 66 29 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 65 31 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 67 29 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 67 29 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just what
people want to hear
Current Total 67 29 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 65 31 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 68 28 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 66 29 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f. Would trust him to make the right
decisions during an international
crisis
Current Total 54 42 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 54 43 3 =100
(10/14-15/04) 53 44 3 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 42 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 57 40 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 51 46 3 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 53 44 3 =100
(10/14-15/04) 53 43 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 45 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 41 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 59 37 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 59 37 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 61 35 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 59 37 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 37 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 59 36 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 64 29 7 =100
i. Is too conservative
Current Total 37 58 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 36 56 8 =100
(10/14-15/04) 32 61 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 58 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 33 61 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 32 61 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
14. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, No, DK
describes does not
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 53 41 6 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 53 40 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 56 36 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 50 40 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 41 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 52 41 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 51 39 10 =100
(10/14-15/04) 52 39 9 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 33 10 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 35 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 39 14 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 54 40 6 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 55 38 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 54 39 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 57 34 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 55 36 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 38 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 60 34 6 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 61 31 8 =100
(10/14-15/04) 59 34 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 63 31 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 59 32 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 59 33 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 42 51 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 45 47 8 =100
(10/14-15/04) 47 45 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 45 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 47 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 47 46 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 47 45 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 40 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 48 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 48 48 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 48 46 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 48 48 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 50 42 8 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 48 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is intelligent and well
informed
Current Total 77 20 3 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 78 17 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 78 17 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 80 15 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 74 18 8 =100
i. Is too liberal
Current Total 48 45 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 44 47 9 =100
(10/14-15/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 43 48 9 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 43 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
15. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 10/21- 10/14- 9/30- 9/9-
22/04 15/04 10/2/04 10/04
24 Terrorism and homeland
security 25 22 26 25
21 The situation in Iraq 21 20 20 15
20 The economy 20 16 21 21
12 Health care, including
Medicare 13 14 11 14
8 American jobs and foreign 7 8 8 9
competition
5 Education 5 5 5 7
3 Taxes 2 3 1 2
4 Other (VOL.) 2 5 3 3
3 Don't know 5 7 5 4
100 100 100 100 100
16. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to
a better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(vol) (vol)
a. The economy
Current Total 44 48 1 2 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 44 48 2 2 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 45 48 1 2 4 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 39 52 1 3 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 46 46 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 43 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in Iraq
Current Total 52 42 * 2 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 51 40 1 3 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 51 41 1 2 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 49 44 1 3 3 =100
(9/9-10/04) 54 39 * 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 37 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and homeland
security
Current Total 56 37 2 1 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 55 37 2 2 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 54 38 2 1 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 52 40 2 2 4 =100
(9/9-10/04) 58 34 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 60 32 2 2 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care, including
Medicare
Current Total 41 50 1 3 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 40 50 1 4 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 42 50 1 2 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 34 56 1 4 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 40 50 1 3 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 45 2 2 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. American jobs and
foreign competition
Current Total 42 49 1 3 5 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 40 49 2 3 6 =100
(10/14-15/04) 40 49 1 3 7 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 36 54 1 3 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 1 4 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
f. Education
Current Total 46 47 2 2 3 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 43 46 3 3 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 45 45 2 2 6 =100
(9/9-10/04) 45 46 2 2 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 48 42 2 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
g. Taxes
Current Total 49 43 1 3 4 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 47 45 1 3 4 =100
(10/14-15/04) 49 42 2 2 5 =100
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 2 4 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 38 1 2 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
h. The environment
Current Total 35 54 * 4 7 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 32 56 3 2 7 =100
(10/14-15/04) 34 51 2 4 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 36 50 2 2 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 29 59 2 2 8 =100
i. Gay marriage
Current Total 46 41 1 3 9 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 39 43 2 6 10 =100
(10/14-15/04) 41 39 3 7 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 36 1 6 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 33 1 5 15 =100
(2/5-6/04) 38 29 2 5 26 =100
j. Stem cell research
Current Total 34 53 1 3 9 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 31 54 2 2 11 =100
(10/14-15/04) 32 54 1 3 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 26 53 1 3 17 =100
k. Abortion
Current Total 45 44 1 2 8 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 42 44 1 3 10 =100
(10/14-15/04) 44 42 2 4 8 =100
l. Social Security
Current Total 42 48 1 3 6 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 42 48 2 3 5 =100
(10/14-15/04) 40 46 2 5 7 =100
17. All in all, do you think George W. Bush's economic and tax policies
have done more to help or hurt economic conditions in this country --
or haven't had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total 10/21- 9/2- 7/29-
22/04 3/04 30/04
32 Help 33 38 33
43 Hurt 43 38 43
22 Not much effect 19 19 20
3 Don't know 5 5 4
100 100 100 100
18. From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 51 45 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 55 38 7 =100
(5/13-14/04) 51 43 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 57 39 4 =100
(3/25-26/04) 55 41 4 =100
(3/18-19/04) 57 37 6 =100
(1/29-30/04) 55 39 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 62 32 6 =100
(11/6-7/03) 55 38 7 =100
(10/23-24/03) 59 34 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 56 37 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 64 31 5 =100
(8/21-22/03) 61 33 6 =100
(7/24-25/03) 68 28 4 =100
Note: Trends before 9/2-3/04 are based on Total Adults.
19. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
safer from terrorism, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 42 55 3 =100
Trends
(10/21-22/04) 42 53 5 =100
(9/30-10/2/04) 41 55 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 50 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 38 57 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 53 3 =100
20. For how much longer would you support keeping large numbers of U.S.
military personnel in Iraq to help establish security and rebuild the
country ... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 7/29- 4/8- 8/21- 7/24- 7/10-
30/04 9/04 22/03 25/03 11/03
28 Less than one year 34 30 28 31 29
22 One to two years 19 23 28 30 28
17 Three to five years 13 15 18 17 17
4 Six to 10 years 3 3 3 4 3
12 More than 10 years 10 11 11 8 6
7 No longer/Bring them 10 8 5 5 7
home (VOL.)
10 Don't know 11 10 7 5 10
100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: Trends before 7/29-30/04 are based on Total Adults
21. Before the Iraq war, the Bush administration said it had intelligence
reports indicating that Iraq was hiding banned chemical or biological
weapons from UN weapons inspectors. But so far no such banned weapons
have been found in Iraq. Do you think the Bush Administration...
(INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
a. Misinterpreted or misanalyzed the
intelligence reports they said
indicated Iraq had banned weapons
Current Total 50 43 7 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 51 41 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 56 36 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 55 35 10 =100
(1/29-30/04) 54 36 10 =100
(10/23-24/03) 50 39 11 =100
(10/9-10/03) 49 39 12 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 47 9 =100
(7/24-25/03) 41 49 10 =100
(7/10-11/03) 45 41 14 =100
(5/29-30/03) 36 54 10 =100
b. Purposely misled the public about
evidence that Iraq had banned
weapons in order to build support
for war
Current Total 43 54 3 =100
Trends
(9/30-10/2/04) 45 50 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 49 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 41 51 8 =100
(10/23-24/03) 42 49 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 45 45 10 =100
(8/21-22/03) 43 51 6 =100
(7/24-25/03) 39 56 5 =100
(7/10-11/03) 38 53 9 =100
(5/29-30/03) 36 57 7 =100
Note: Trends before 7/29-30/04 are based on Total Adults.
22. All in all, how worried are you that someone in your family might
become a victim of a terrorist attack? Are you ... very worried,
somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all DK
Current Total 13 28 32 26 1 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 11 27 31 30 1 =100
(1/8-9/04) 9 26 33 31 1 =100
(8/21-22/03) 18 26 26 28 2 =100
(3/28-4/1/03) 14 34 31 20 1 =100
(1/8-12/03) 11 30 37 21 1 =100
(11/7-8/02) 13 23 34 30 * =100
(10/10-11/02) 16 27 35 21 1 =100
(6/19-23/02) 17 28 36 19 * =100
(1/9-12/02) 12 26 38 24 * =100
(10/31-11/7/01) 13 27 29 19 2 =100
(10/10-14/01) 18 32 29 19 2 =100
(9/21-25/01) 17 36 31 15 1 =100
(8/98) 10 22 38 29 1 =100
Note: Trends before 9/9-10/04 are based on Total Adults. August 1998
trend from Gallup poll. September 2001 through June 2002 trends
from Pew Research Center. January to March 2003 trends from Pew
Research center had a volunteered response, "Already a victim",
included here in the Don't know category.
23. In recent weeks, have you personally been contacted by any campaign or
political organization asking you to vote for ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, have No/DK
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 25 75 =100
White Evangelical Prot. 27 73 =100
White Non-Evan. Prot. 28 72 =100
White Catholics 28 72 =100
Non-whites 17 83 =100
Labor Union Households 33 67 =100
Non-Labor Union Households 24 76 =100
Republican states 16 84 =100
Swing states 42 58 =100
Democratic states 13 87 =100
Trend
(10/21-22/04) 16 84 =100
b. John Kerry
Current Total 26 74 =100
White Evangelical Prot. 21 79 =100
White Non-Evan. Prot. 29 71 =100
White Catholics 28 72 =100
Non-whites 24 76 =100
Labor Union Households 38 62 =100
Non-Labor Union Households 23 77 =100
Republican states 16 84 =100
Swing states 42 58 =100
Democratic states 13 87 =100
Trend
(10/21-22/04) 19 81 =100
24. On another subject ... Which of the following do you blame MOST for
the shortage of flu vaccine this year ... (READ ITEMS IN ORDER)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
8 The Bush administration
13 The Federal government in general
35 The drug company that produced the contaminated vaccine, OR
32 The pharmaceutical industry in general?
5 (VOL.) None of these/other
7 Don't know
100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek
 back to top
Related links:
http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com
CONTACT:
Carol Sullivan of Newsweek, +1-212-445-4078
NOTE TO EDITORS: To interview Senior Editor Marcus Mabry, call
Carol Sullivan at 212-445-4078.
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