Newsweek Takes an In-Depth Look at 2008 Hopefuls, Hillary Clinton and
Barack Obama; Says Theodore Sorenson: Obama 'Reminds Me in Many Ways of
Kennedy'
NEWSWEEK POLL: 50 Percent of Americans Would Most Like To See Hillary
Nominated; 32 Percent Say Obama
OBAMA TELLS NEWSWEEK: 'I Have Tremendous Respect for Hillary Clinton. She's
an Outstanding Leader in the Democratic Party. She's Earned Her Stripes'
NEW YORK, Dec. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- For 220 years, Americans have elected
only white male Christians with no hint of ethnicity to the White House,
and no one knows yet whether we are ready to break the chain now, reports
Newsweek. As part of the cover package, "The Race is On," Senior Editor and
Columnist Jonathan Alter explores whether America is ready for a historic
first in the White House in 2008: the first woman president or the first
black president - New York Senator Hillary Clinton or Illinois Senator
Barack Obama. "He [Obama] reminds me in many ways of Kennedy in 1960. The
pundits said he was Catholic and too young and inexperienced and wasn't a
member of the party's inner circle. They forgot that the nomination wasn't
decided in Washington but out in the field," Theodore Sorensen, John F.
Kennedy's adviser and speechwriter, tells Newsweek in the December 25, 2006
- January 1, 2007 issue (on newsstands Monday, December 18).
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20061217/NYSU007)
It's impossible to separate the abstract question of whether America is
ready for a woman or a black from the concrete matter of whether we're
ready for Hillary or Barack, Alter reports. Historically, the odds favor a
woman over an African-American; psychologically and generationally, they
may favor Obama over Hillary. Both are now expected to launch their
campaigns early in the new year. In the latest Newsweek Poll, 86 percent of
those polled say that if their party nominated a woman for president, they
would vote for her if she were qualified for the job. When asked if America
is ready to elect a woman president, 55 percent of those polled said yes,
it is; 35 percent do not believe America is ready to elect a woman
president. When Americans were asked if their party nominated an
African-American for president if they would vote for that person, 93
percent said yes, they would. When asked if America is ready to elect an
African-American president, 56 percent of those polled, said yes; 30
percent of those polled responded no. If the race for the Democratic
Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, 50 of those polled say they would most
like to see Hillary Clinton nominated; 32 percent say they would like to
see Barack Obama nominated.
Also in the cover package, in an interview, Obama speaks out on his
prospects for the presidency, his leading rival for the nomination and
post- baby-boom politics. When asked how he matches up against Hillary
Clinton, Obama tells Newsweek, "I'm not going to go there. I have
tremendous respect for Hillary Clinton. She's an outstanding leader in the
Democratic Party. She's earned her stripes." When asked if America was
ready for a black or female president, Obama says, "I absolutely think
America is ready for either ... what I've found is that the American people
- once they get to know you - are going to judge you on your individual
character. Whatever the flaws in the process, people get a fairly accurate
read by the end of the campaign."
Both campaigns would likely have ample funds for a protracted primary
campaign, Alter reports. Hillary Clinton has $14.4 million on hand and a
financial network in place to raise whatever it takes. And should Obama
maintain his momentum, the money will most certainly follow. "If Howard
Dean raised $45 million on the Internet, that number is easily obtainable,"
Bill Daley tells Newsweek.
Even so, people remain uneasy about women in power. Rep. Stephanie
Tubbs- Jones, an African-American who committed to Hillary a year ago (but
admits she would now be torn between her and Obama if she hadn't), worries
about her candidate. "Women are harder on women," she says. "They demand a
level of perfection they often do not from male candidates." Both
candidates have created a level of political novelty and intrigue that goes
beyond gender and race. "People don't view her first as a woman - they view
her as a Clinton," says one of Bill Clinton's longtime advisers, who did
not wish to be quoted assessing her candidacy. "And he looks like he may
have the secret formula to unlock partisanship - a mixture that's broader
than race."
Rep. Jim Clyburn, the black South Carolinian whose support is important
in that state's critical primary, told Newsweek last week that he didn't
think President Clinton's popularity would necessarily rub off on his wife.
"Would my wife do as well as I did [running for office]? I don't think so,"
Clyburn says. "A lot of things can't transfer. You just can't pass that
on."
Elsewhere in the cover package, a special guest essay by the 1984
Democratic vice presidential nominee, Rep. Geraldine Ferraro who writes,
"It's been 22 years since I became the first woman to run on a major-party
ticket, and we're still asking whether a woman can be elected president. I
don't think that's the right question. This isn't about just any woman.
It's specific to Hillary Clinton, and we should be asking if she could do
it." Also included is an essay by 1984 and 1988 presidential candidate,
Rev. Jesse L. Jackson who says, "I believe that if Obama does run, he could
inspire Americans finally to look past race and elect an African-American
to the Oval Office."
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates
International interviewed 1,000 adults aged 18 and older on December 6-7,
2006. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
(Read entire cover package at http://www.Newsweek.com.)
Cover: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16238556/site/newsweek/
Barack Obama Interview: 'The Challenges We Face':
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16242286/site/newsweek/
What We Learned the Hard Way:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16242285/site/newsweek/
Newsweek Poll
Hillary and Obama
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(12/17/06)
N = 1,000 national adults, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: 12/6-7/06
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
279 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
330 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
336 Independents (plus or minus 6)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
864 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
253 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
289 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
284 Independents (plus or minus 7)
422 Democrats/Democratic Leaners (plus or minus 5)
406 Men (plus or minus 6)
458 Women (plus or minus 5)
714 Whites (plus or minus 4)
130 Non-Whites (plus or minus 10)
Notes: Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race,
region, and population density.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute
percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
1. If your party nominated a WOMAN for president, would you vote for her
if she were qualified for the job?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 86 8 6 =100
Men 86 8 6 =100
Women 86 8 6 =100
Trends(1)
(1/20-25/06) 92 5 3 =100
(12/13-16/99) 91 6 3 =100
(3/30-4/1/98) 90 7 3 =100
2. Do you think America is ready to elect a woman president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 55 35 10 =100
Men 59 32 9 =100
Women 51 39 10 =100
Trends(2)
(1/20-25/06) 55 38 7(3) =100
(12/13-16/99) 48 45 7 =100
(3/30-4/1/98) 50 45 5 =100
(10/27-29/96) 40 53 7 =100
3. If your party nominated a BLACK OR AFRICAN AMERICAN for president,
would you vote for that person if he or she were qualified for the
job?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 93 3 4 =100
Whites 92 5 3 =100
Non-Whites 96 2 2 =100
Trends(4)
(2/6-10/00) 94 4 2 =100
(10/15-18/91) 83 9 8(5) =100
4. Do you think America is ready to elect an African-American president,
or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 56 30 14 =100
Whites 55 30 15 =100
Non-Whites 57 33 10 =100
Trend(6)
(2/6-10/00) 37 52 11(7) =100
5. What if your party nominated a MORMON for president, that is, a member
of the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter Day Saints? Would you vote
for that person if he or she were qualified for the job?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
66 Yes
25 No
9 Don't know
100
6. Do you think America is ready to elect a Mormon president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
34 Yes
48 No
18 Don't know
100
READ INTRO TO Q7ab-Q12ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to
describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the
2008 election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you
would vote if the election for president were being held TODAY. First ...
7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,
and John McCain, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 50 43 7 =100
Republicans 11 82 7 =100
Democrats 83 14 3 =100
Independents 45 45 10 =100
8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,
and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 48 47 5 =100
Republicans 12 83 5 =100
Democrats 80 19 1 =100
Independents 41 50 9 =100
9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,
and Mitt Romney, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Clinton Total Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 58 32 10 =100
Republicans 20 70 10 =100
Democrats 87 8 5 =100
Independents 57 29 14 =100
10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
John McCain, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Obama, the Democrat; or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 43 45 12 =100
Republicans 15 77 8 =100
Democrats 73 20 7 =100
Independents 38 48 14 =100
11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 44 47 9 =100
Republicans 17 75 8 =100
Democrats 72 20 8 =100
Independents 39 50 11 =100
12a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
Mitt Romney, the Republican. Who would you vote for? [IF
OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN
more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Obama Total Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 55 25 20 =100
Republicans 25 56 19 =100
Democrats 82 5 13 =100
Independents 55 21 24 =100
13. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination
in 2008 comes down to a choice between Hillary Clinton and Barack
Obama. Who would you MOST like to see nominated -- Clinton or Obama?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
50 Clinton
32 Obama
2 Neither/Other (VOL.)
16 Undecided
100
14. How much would you say you know about Hillary Clinton and what she
stands for... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Dem/Lean Dem
45 A lot 42
36 Some 39
13 Only a little, OR 14
4 Nothing at all? 4
2 Don't know 1
100 100
15. How much would you say you know about Barack Obama and what he stands
for... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Dem/Lean Dem
14 A lot 18
27 Some 27
27 Only a little, OR 25
31 Nothing at all? 29
1 Don't know 1
100 100
D2. Now I have just a few more questions so we can describe the people
who took part in our survey ... Regardless of how you might have
voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider
yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Total RVs
26 Republican 28
34 Democrat 35
34 Independent 32
3 No party/Not interested (VOL.) 2
* Other party (VOL.) 1
3 Don't know 2
100 100
END OF INTERVIEW.
(1) 2006 trend from CBS News/New York Times poll. 1998 and 1999 trends
from CBS News polls. All trends based on total adults.
(2) 2006 trend from CBS News/New York Times poll. 1996, 1998 and 1999
trends from CBS News polls. All trends based on total adults.
(3) Don't know/Refused category for all trends includes those who
volunteered Depends.
(4) 2000 trend from CBS News poll. 1991 trend from CBS News/New York
Times poll; wording read "If your party nominated a generally well
qualified black candidate for President, would you vote for him?".
Trends based on total adults.
(5) Don't know/Refused category includes those who volunteered Depends.
(6) Trend from CBS News poll. Trend based on total adults.
(7) Don't know/Refused category includes those who volunteered Depends.
SOURCE Newsweek
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