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| It's Really Close: Online Survey Shows Kerry with Two-Point Lead; Telephone Survey Shows Four-Point Bush Lead |
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Nov. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- This release gives the results of
both of Harris Interactive's latest telephone and online polls. They show
somewhat different results. The online survey shows President Bush trailing
Senator Kerry by two points among likely voters(1). Our telephone survey
shows President Bush with a four-point lead over Senator Kerry.
These are the results of two nationwide surveys of likely voters conducted
by Harris Interactive(R) in the United States between October 29 and 31, 2004:
-- A survey of 3,926 likely voters conducted online.
-- A survey of 1,092 likely voters conducted by telephone.
Not our final surveys
This is NOT the final Harris Interactive poll release before this
election. We will continue to poll throughout today, Monday, November 1, and
will analyze and release the results some time tonight or tomorrow morning
before the "real" polls open and people begin voting in person. Because, in
the past, voting intentions have continued to move right up to the last moment
of an election campaign, we believe it is important to continue our polling
until Monday evening.
People with cell phones and no landlines
One subject of much discussion in this election is that a growing number
of people have no traditional "landline" phones but have cell phones and
cannot be reached by traditional telephone surveys.
Data from our online survey suggest that six percent (6%) of all likely
voters now fall into this category and that they are voting strongly for John
Kerry by 56 to 38 percent over President Bush.
These results suggest that telephone surveys which miss almost everyone
without landlines will, even if they are accurate, slightly overestimate
President Bush's vote and slightly underestimate Senator Kerry's vote. This
also explains a small part of the difference between our online and telephone
surveys.
Many voters have already voted
One of the several differences between this and previous elections is that
almost a quarter of all the votes will have been cast early, mostly by mail.
In 2000 we found that eight percent (8%) of voters cast their vote early.
Now we estimate that approximately 24 percent of all this year's votes have
already been cast. These voters have given an early 50 to 44 percent lead to
President Bush over Senator Kerry.
(1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote.
Note: Likely voter base includes those who have already voted in this
election.
TABLE 1
BUSH VS. KERRY (ONLINE SURVEY)
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters(1)
Likely Voters
%
George W. Bush 47
John Kerry 49
Ralph Nader 1
Michael Badnarik 1
Other *
Not sure/Refused 2
(1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote
Note: Likely voter base includes those who have already voted in this
election.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 2
BUSH VS. KERRY (TELEPHONE SURVEY)
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters(1)
Likely Voters
%
George W. Bush 49
John Kerry 45
Ralph Nader 2
Other (not including Michael Badnarik) 1
Not sure/Refused 3
(1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote.
Note: Likely voter base includes those who have already voted in this
election.
TABLE 3
HOW CELL PHONE ONLY (NO LAND LINE) VOTERS ARE LIKELY TO VOTE
Base: The six percent of likely voters(1) who have cell phone but no other
(landline) phone
%
George W. Bush 38
John Kerry 56
Ralph Nader 2
Michael Badnarik 1
Other 1
Not sure/Refused 3
Based on the online survey.
(1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote.
Note: Likely voter base includes those who have already voted in this
election.
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
BUSH VS. KERRY: HOW EARLY VOTERS VOTED
"Who did you vote for?"
Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24
percent of all "Likely Voters")
%
George W. Bush 50
John Kerry 44
Ralph Nader 1
Michael Badnarik 1
Other *
Not sure/Refused 4
Based on combined online and telephone survey data.
(1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote.
Note: This base includes ONLY those likely voters who have already voted
in this election.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
Methodology
Telephone poll
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States
between October 29 and 31, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,092
likely voters (ages 18 and over) defined as those who are registered to vote
and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. (Note: Likely voter base
includes those who have already voted in this election.) Figures for age, sex,
race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the
household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align
them with their actual proportions in the population.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95
percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or
minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult
population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy.
Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls
or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of
sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse),
question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by
demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is
impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.
Online poll
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between
October 29 and 31, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 3,926 likely
voters (aged 18 and over) defined as those who are registered to vote and say
they are "absolutely certain" to vote. (Note: Likely voter base includes those
who have already voted in this election.) Figures for age, sex, race,
education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring
them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity
score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be
online.
In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95
percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2
percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of
likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are
several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are
probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They
include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and
question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that
may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability
sample.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
J22300B - Q436 - Q440 (telephone)
J11351V - Q505 - Q510 (online)
Harris Interactive Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction prohibited
without the express written permission of Harris Interactive.
About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive Inc. (http://www.harrisinteractive.com ), the 13th
largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, is a Rochester,
N.Y.-based global research company that blends premier strategic consulting
with innovative and efficient methods of investigation, analysis and
application. Known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering Internet-based
research methods, Harris Interactive conducts proprietary and public research
to help its clients achieve clear, material and enduring results.
Harris Interactive combines its intellectual capital, databases and
technology to advance market leadership through U.S. offices and wholly owned
subsidiaries: London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com ), Paris-based
Novatris (http://www.novatris.com ), Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan,
through newly acquired WirthlinWorldwide (http://www.wirthlinworldwide.com ),
a Reston, Virginia-based research and consultancy firm ranked 25th largest in
the world, and through an independent global network of affiliate market
research companies. EOE M/F/D/V.
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com.
Press Contacts:
Nancy Wong
Harris Interactive
585-214-7316
Kelly Gullo
Harris Interactive
585-214-7172
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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CONTACT:
Nancy Wong, +1-585-214-7316, or Kelly Gullo,
+1-585-214-7172, both of Harris Interactive
