WASHINGTON, March 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Ten years after the end of the war and
in the lead up to EU accession, Bosnia's three main ethnic groups -- Bosniaks,
Croats and Serbs -- remain divided and ambivalent about important political
choices that are likely to affect the pace of their country's development,
according to a recent survey conducted by the Washington, D.C.-based media and
opinion research firm InterMedia.
The survey, which polled 2,500 adults 15 and older across Bosnia, showed
that despite recent progress towards reconciliation, ethno-political divides
persist, as do theories about international conspiracies.
"Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs are unable to rally around common political
leaders; instead, each ethnic group has its own favorite," said Aneta Genova,
InterMedia analyst for the Balkans. "Equally troubling for a country that has
yet to find its feet, more than one-third of the people interviewed (34
percent) show no sympathy for any of the leading local politicians. Small
wonder then that more than half (51 percent) are worried by the lack of strong
leadership to steer the country away from the present hardships."
Among Bosniak respondents, the front-runner is Haris Silajdzic, leader of
the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina; the Croats favor Dragan Covic, leader of
the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), and the Serbs prefer Milorad Dodik, prime
minister of Republika Srpska. Bosniaks are particularly concerned: 56 percent
identified the absence of determined leaders as one of the critical problems
facing the country, compared with 46 percent of the Croats and 47 percent of
the Serbs.
Conspiracy theories continue to float in the public mind. Fully 53 percent
of those polled agree at least somewhat that foreign plots are responsible for
most of their country's problems. Serbs are particularly fatalistic, with 63
percent inclined to blame their plight at least in part on scheming foreign
powers. Bosniaks and Croats are also wary of outside influences, though to a
lesser degree: roughly half of the respondents in either ethnic group tend to
see themselves as victims at the hands of malicious outsiders.
Bosnians remain wary of the outside world: 44 percent perceive foreign
influences as a threat to their culture. Serbs and Bosniaks are particularly
cautious: 51 percent and 45 percent, respectively, feel their culture is
threatened. Croats are more outward looking: only 35 percent believe foreign
influences might endanger their cultural heritage.
InterMedia data also show there is considerable, though not unequivocal,
support for EU membership. Bosniaks are most keen on getting access to the EU:
48 percent of those polled agree strongly that their country should become a
member, and another 32 percent agree somewhat. Croats and Serbs are also in
favor, but are less enthusiastic: 36 percent of Croats agree strongly and 33
percent agree somewhat; the numbers for the Serbs are similar.
The picture is more mixed as regards NATO. Bosniaks and Croats are
generally positive: majorities agree strongly or at least somewhat that their
country should join the Alliance. The Serbs, many of whom still feel they are
citizens of Serbia rather than of Bosnia, are divided: 30 percent agree with
an eventual NATO membership, 24 percent disagree and 36 percent can not make
up their mind.
On the United States and the West, pluralities in each ethnic group said
they are neither favorably nor unfavorably inclined. "Bosnians seem to be wary
of the United States and other Western powers, possibly due to these
countries' shifting positions during the Bosnian war," said Genova. "Those
unfavorably inclined towards the United States cite the war in Iraq and the
country's foreign policy in general as the two main sources of their views."
The share of those non-committed is highest among the Serbs (47 percent). The
Serbs are also least sympathetic: 35 percent are somewhat or very unfavorably
inclined towards the United States, and only 13 percent hold a favorable view.
Among Bosniaks, 27 percent are unfavorably inclined and 19 percent hold
positive opinions; numbers for the Croats are similar.
InterMedia is a leading international media research, public opinion,
evaluation and consulting organization creatively equipping clients to
understand their audiences, gauge their effectiveness and target their
communications in transitional and developing societies worldwide. Based in
Washington, D.C., and active year-round in more than 60 countries, InterMedia
helps clients understand complex issues in challenging research environments.
The company's strengths include its people -- area experts skilled in
scientifically-based research and focused on client solutions -- its vast
global network of local research partners and contacts and its rich data
archive of close to 500 media and opinion surveys carried out over the past 15
years.
Survey note: The most recent InterMedia-sponsored survey was of 2,500
adults 15 and older and was conducted between 6 and 21 December 2005. Range of
error with a 95 percent confidence interval is +/- 1.96 percent.
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