BERLIN, May 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Teal Group today announced publication of
its new Worldwide Mission Model: 2004-2013 at the Berlin Air Show ILA 2004.
The study counts a total of 1,209 payloads proposed for launch to Earth orbit
during the next 10 years, down 14% from last year's total of 1,410 payloads
for 2003-2012.
The Model breaks out the data by more than a dozen fields such as payload,
payload type, mass, orbit, prime contractor, customer, country, launch
vehicle, and launch site. It provides a framework from which to make
projections about the future of space based on the relatively "hard
information" available on a wide range of payloads, including satellites,
microgravity experiments capsules, and manned missions. It is a snapshot of
what has been proposed for production and launch as of this writing.
"This is the third year in a row that the number of payloads has dropped,"
says Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems
Briefing, the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence service in
which the Model is published (for more information on the service, call
703-573-5374 or fax 703-573-0559). "We peaked in 2001 when we identified
2,160 payloads proposed for launch during 2001-2010." (Further details on
this latest Teal survey and the full space service itself may be obtained from
Teal Group sales representatives listed at http://www.tealgroup.com.)
About 49% of the payloads are of US origin. Of those, 60% are proposed by
the US Government and 37.2% by US commercial ventures. Slightly under 3% are
university payloads, mostly nanosatellites or picosatellites. Some 20.6% of
the payloads are European, 13.7% from Asia & Pacific Rim countries, and 9.7%
Russian. The remainder are a mix of international payloads or payloads from
other regions, including Latin America & Caribbean and Africa & Middle East.
"We've not noticed any great shifts in terms of the countries or regions
that are proposing new satellites or missions to space," says Caceres. "What
is noticeable is the continuing decline in the number of commercial payloads
relative to government payloads."
In 2003, commercial payloads accounted for 45.5% of the total payloads in
the Model. This year, that percentage has dropped to 38.4%. Civil and
military payloads make up 41.7% and 15.7% of the payloads in the current
Model, up from 38.7% and 13.7% respectively last year. According to Caceres,
"There are just not enough new commercial satellites being proposed to make up
for all those commercial satellite programs that have died of attrition during
the past few years."
The Model identifies more than 100 different prime contractors. The top
20 primes, including Alcatel Space Industries, Boeing Satellite Systems, EADS
Astrium, Lockheed Martin Commercial Space Systems, and Northrop Grumman Space
Technology, and others account for 52.6% of the total payloads.
Teal Group Corporation is a defense and aerospace consulting firm based in
Fairfax, Virginia. The company provides competitive market intelligence to
industry and government.
Chart:
(in units) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Proposed
Payloads 349 251 183 105 66 153 55 18 15 14
|
