Sixty-One Percent of Viewers Say Kerry Won Debate; Kerry/Edwards Now Leads
Bush/Cheney 49-46 Percent in Two-Way Matchup
Majorities Say Kerry Seemed More Confident, Had Better Command
of Issues, Bush Too Repetitive
Sixty Percent Say They Know 'A Lot' About What Bush Stands for
Versus 38 Percent for Kerry
NEW YORK, Oct. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- Sixty-one percent of Americans who
watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won;
19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied,
according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate
ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent
say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3
percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over
Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a
three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered
voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent
for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46
percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and
self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command
of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more
personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to
reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The
two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a
strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with
the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry
was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with
the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job
approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46
percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican
convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not
like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Among registered voters, 60 percent say they know "a lot" about what Bush
stands for, compared to 38 percent who say so about Kerry, the poll shows.
During the debate, President Bush said the military would remain "an all-
volunteer army," but if Bush is re-elected, 38 percent of registered voters
say the draft is likely to be reinstated; 51 percent say it's not, according
to the poll. If Kerry is elected president, 18 percent say the draft is
likely to be reinstated; 67 percent say it is not. And 62 percent of
registered voters say reinstating the draft should not be considered at this
time; 28 percent say it should be considered.
A 60-percent majority of registered voters say Bush administration
policies and diplomatic efforts have led to more anti-Americanism around the
world and 51 percent say the administration has not done enough to involve
major allies and international organizations in trying to achieve its foreign
policy goals, the poll shows.
As for who will handle issues better overall, among registered voters Bush
leads Kerry 52 to 40 percent on terrorism and homeland security; the situation
in Iraq (49% vs. 44%); the situation involving Israel and the Palestinians
(46% vs. 39%) and controlling the spread of nuclear weapons (47% v. 43%).
Kerry scores better on the economy (52% vs. 39%); health care, including
Medicare (56% to 34%) and American jobs and foreign competition (54% vs. 36%),
the poll shows.
Overall, 62 percent say Bush has strong leadership qualities (compared to
56% who say so for Kerry). Sixty-six percent say Bush says what he believes,
not just what people want to hear, compared to 48 percent for Kerry. Sixty-
five percent say Bush is personally likeable (63% say so for Kerry). But more
registered voters (57%) say Kerry is honest and ethical (vs. 55% for Bush);
the same amount (51%) says they would trust Kerry to make the right decisions
during an international crisis as would trust Bush (51%); and more (57%) say
Kerry cares about people like them (vs. 49% for Bush). And 80 percent of
registered voters say Kerry is intelligent and well informed, compared to 59
percent for Bush.
On Iraq, 50 percent of registered voters polled say the war in Iraq was
not necessary; 46 percent say it was. And 55 percent of registered voters say
going to war in Iraq has not made Americans safer from terrorism; 41 percent
say it has. Fifty-one percent of registered voters say the Bush administration
misinterpreted or misanalyzed the intelligence reports it said indicated Iraq
had banned weapons; 41 percent say it didn't. And 45 percent say the
administration purposely misled the public about evidence that Iraq had banned
weapons in order to build support for the war; 50 percent say it did not.
During is 19-year career in the U.S. Senate, Kerry has changed his
position on a number of issues. From what they know about Kerry, 47 percent of
registered voters say this is because Kerry is thoughtful and changes position
as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue; the same number
(47%) say it's because Kerry is politically-motivated and changes his position
when he thinks it will improve his image or help him win an election.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International
interviewed 1,013 registered voters on Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2004. The margin of
error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, with different margins of error
for subgroups. This poll is part of the October 11 issue of Newsweek (on
newsstands Monday, October 4).
(Poll attached. Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com.
Click "Pressroom" at bottom of page)
Newsweek Poll
First Presidential Debate
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(10/2/04)
N = 1,013 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 30-October 2, 2004 (interviewing on 9/30
limited to the Pacific and Mountain time zones after the presidential
debate concluded)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,144 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,013 Total Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5)
345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR DEBATE VIEWERS SUBGROUPS:
770 Debate viewers (those who say they watched at least some of the
debate) (plus or minus 4.1)
369 Men (plus or minus 6)
401 Women (plus or minus 6)
265 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
274 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
215 Independents (plus or minus 8)
NOTE: Data ares weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and region.
Ssample sizes listed above are unweighted and should NOT be used to compute
percentages.
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND,
OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, TN,
WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following
three choices for president and vice president... (INSERT CHOICES
AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John
Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter
Camejo, the Independent or third party candidates. Who would you
vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR
NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more
toward...Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the
Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 45 47 2 6 =100
Men 45 47 2 6 =100
Women 44 48 1 7 =100
Republicans 89 6 2 3 =100
Democrats 12 86 0 2 =100
Independents 37 42 4 17 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 49 43 2 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 3 4 =100
(8/5-10/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Note: 8/5-10/04 trend from Pew Research Center. Trends before 7/8-9/04
based on slightly different question wording that did not include vice
presidential candidates' names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
Total 9/9-10/04 9/2-3/04 8/5-10/04 7/29-30/04 7/8-9/04
Bush/Cheney Voters
32 Strong 35 39 32 30 31
13 Not Strong 14 13 13 12 13
Kerry/Edwards
Voters
31 Strong 26 25 28 31 25
16 Not Strong 17 16 19 18 22
Nader/Camejo
Voters
1 Strong 1 1 1 * 1
1 Not Strong 1 2 1 3 2
6 Undecided/Other 6 4 6 6 6
100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: 8/5-10/04 trend from Pew Research Center.
Strength of Support by Candidate Preference
Bush/Cheney Supporters Kerry/Edwards Supporters
Strength of Support
Strong 72 65
Not Strong 28 35
100 100
Number of Interviews (462) (478)
2a/b. Suppose Ralph Nader is not listed on the ballot in your state. If
the election were held TODAY, would you vote for... (INSERT CHOICES
AND ROTATE) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards,
the Democrats. [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH, KERRY, OR NADER,
RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush
and Cheney, the Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total Undecided/Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Current Total 46 49 5 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 50 45 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 43 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 52 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 51 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 45 46 9 =100
(4/8-9/04) 43 50 7 =100
(3/25-26/04) 47 48 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 48 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 45 48 7 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 46 48 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 49 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 52 41 7 =100
(12/11-12/03) 51 41 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 49 45 6 =100
(10/23-24/03) 50 42 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 48 42 10 =100
(9/25-26/03) 50 42 8 =100
(9/18-19/03) 48 43 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 50 42 8 =100
Note: Question wording slightly modified. Question wording for trends
prior to 7/8-9/04 did not include vice presidential candidates' names. July
2003 to February 2004 trend results are based on a slightly different question
that was not preceded by the three way trial heat including Nader. Earlier
trial heats were preceded by questions about the Democratic presidential race.
3. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never
heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what about...
(INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND ROTATE ITEMS C
& D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of DK
a. George W. Bush
Current RVs 49 46 0 5 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 * 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 40 * 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
b. John Kerry
Current RVs 52 40 * 8 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 1 7 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 46 * 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current RVs 44 47 1 8 =100
Trend - RVs
(9/9-10/04) 47 42 1 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 50 40 1 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current RVs 50 31 3 16 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/9-10/04) 45 37 3 15 =100
(9/2-3/04) 46 33 5 16 =100
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
4. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 38 57 5 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 39 53 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner
abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's
capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic
Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research Center;
7/79-6/92 Gallup.
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 46 48 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 48 44 8 =100
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 51 42 7 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/30-31/03) 51 39 10 =100
(10/23-24/03) 51 40 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/25-26/03) 52 40 8 =100
(9/18-19/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/23-24/03) 55 38 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/24-25/02) 61 29 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/26-27/02) 65 27 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/25-26/01) 85 10 5 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends selected.
Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
6. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 46 48 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 50 46 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
7. Regardless of which presidential candidate you personally support, who
do you think is more likely to win in November ... George W. Bush (or)
John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry DK
Current Total 55 29 16 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 60 27 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 44 13 =100
(7/8-9/04) 47 38 15 =100
Questions 8 and 9 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
order in which the items were read was rotated with item i always asked last.
8. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership
qualities
Current Total 62 35 3 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 62 35 3 =100
(9/2-3/04) 65 33 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 55 39 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 55 40 5 =100
(9/2-3/04) 62 33 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 49 47 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 51 45 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 65 31 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 67 29 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 67 29 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e. Says what he believes,
not just what people want to hear
Current Total 66 30 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 66 30 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 66 29 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f. Would trust him to make
the right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 51 45 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 54 42 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 57 40 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 52 45 3 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 52 44 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 54 41 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h. Is intelligent and well
informed
Current Total 59 37 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 59 37 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 59 36 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 64 29 7 =100
i. Is too conservative
Current Total 36 58 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 33 61 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 32 61 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
9. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership
qualities
Current Total 56 36 8 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 50 40 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 41 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 57 33 10 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 54 35 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 47 39 14 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c. Cares about people like
you
Current Total 57 34 9 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 55 36 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 38 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 63 31 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 59 32 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 59 33 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e. Says what he believes,
not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 45 45 10 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 47 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f. Would trust him to make
the right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 51 40 9 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 44 48 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 50 42 8 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 46 45 9 =100
(9/2-3/04) 42 48 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is intelligent and well
informed
Current Total 80 15 5 =100
Trend
(9/9-10/04) 74 18 8 =100
i. Is too liberal
Current Total 43 48 9 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 11 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 43 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
Questions 10 and 11 were asked in random order.
10. How much would you say you know about what George W. Bush stands
for... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
A lot Some Only a Nothing at DK
little all
Current Total 60 26 9 3 2 =100
Trends
(10/4-6/00) 42 34 16 5 3 =100
(9/27-29/00) 40 36 16 6 2 =100
(9/6-16/96 - Dole) 25 37 26 11 1 =100
11. How much would you say you know about what John Kerry stands for...
(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
A lot Some Only a Nothing at DK
little all
Current Total 38 38 17 4 3 =100
Trends
(10/4-6/00 - Gore) 48 33 12 4 3 =100
(9/27-29/00 - Gore) 43 38 14 3 2 =100
(9/6-16/96 -
Clinton) 34 41 18 5 2 =100
12. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 9/9-10/04 9/2-3/04 7/29-30/04
26 Terrorism and homeland
security 25 28 21
21 The economy 21 21 19
20 The situation in Iraq 15 11 18
11 Health care, including
Medicare 14 13 15
8 American jobs and foreign
competition 9 9 9
5 Education 7 6 6
1 Taxes 2 3 4
3 Other (VOL.) 3 3 4
5 Don't know 4 6 4
100 100 100 100
13. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to
a better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(vol) (vol)
a. The economy
Current Total 39 52 1 3 5 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 46 46 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 49 43 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in Iraq
Current Total 49 44 1 3 3 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 54 39 * 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 55 37 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and homeland
security
Current Total 52 40 2 2 4 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 58 34 1 3 4 =100
(9/2-3/04) 60 32 2 2 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care, including
Medicare
Current Total 34 56 1 4 5 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 40 50 1 3 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 43 45 2 2 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. American jobs and foreign
competition
Current Total 36 54 1 3 6 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 42 47 1 4 6 =100
(9/2-3/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
f. Foreign policy in general
Current Total 48 46 1 2 3 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 54 38 2 1 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 49 1 2 4 =100
g. The situation involving
Israel and the Palestinians
Current Total 46 39 2 6 7 =100
h. Controlling the spread of
nuclear weapons
Current Total 47 43 2 3 5 =100
Questions 14 and 15 were asked in random order.
14. Has what you've seen or heard about George W. Bush's military service
record in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War made you
more likely or less likely to vote for him in November, or has it not
had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less Not much Not aware DK
effect
Current Total 4 19 75 1 1 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 5 18 73 2 2 =100
(9/2-3/04) 5 17 75 1 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 5 22 70 2 1 =100
Note: "Haven't heard about/Not aware of" is a volunteered response
category.
15. Has what you've seen or heard about John Kerry's military service
record in the Vietnam War made you more likely or less likely to vote
for him in November, or has it not had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less Not much Not aware DK
effect
Current Total 18 17 63 1 1 =100
Trends
(9/9-10/04) 15 17 64 1 3 =100
(9/2-3/04) 15 19 62 2 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 27 15 55 1 2 =100
Note: "Haven't heard about/Not aware of" is a volunteered response
category.
16. Now on the subject of Iraq ... Do you think the Iraq war was
necessary, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
46 Yes
50 No
4 Don't know
100
17. In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
safer from terrorism, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 41 55 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 45 50 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 38 57 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 53 3 =100
18. Do you think Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was DIRECTLY involved in
planning, financing, or carrying out the terrorist attacks of
September 11th, 2001, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 36 51 13 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 42 44 14 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(9/18-19/03) 47 37 16 =100
Note: Trends before 9/2-3/04 are based on Total Adults.
19. Before the Iraq war, the Bush administration said it had intelligence
reports indicating that Iraq was hiding banned chemical or biological
weapons from UN weapons inspectors. So far, however, no such banned
weapons have been found in Iraq. Do you think the Bush
Administration...(INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
a. Misinterpreted or misanalyzed the
intelligence reports
they said indicated Iraq had banned
weapons
Current Total 51 41 8 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 56 36 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 55 35 10 =100
(1/29-30/04) 54 36 10 =100
(10/23-24/03) 50 39 11 =100
(10/9-10/03) 49 39 12 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 47 9 =100
(7/24-25/03) 41 49 10 =100
(7/10-11/03) 45 41 14 =100
(5/29-30/03) 36 54 10 =100
b. Purposely misled the public about
evidence that Iraq
had banned weapons in order to build
support for war
Current Total 45 50 5 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 49 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 41 51 8 =100
(10/23-24/03) 42 49 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 45 45 10 =100
(8/21-22/03) 43 51 6 =100
(7/24-25/03) 39 56 5 =100
(7/10-11/03) 38 53 9 =100
(5/29-30/03) 36 57 7 =100
Note: Trends before 7/29-30/04 are based on Total Adults.
20. On another subject ... There has not been a military draft in this
country since the 1970s. How would you feel about reinstating the
draft and requiring young men to serve in the military at this time?
Do you favor reinstating the military draft, OR think it should be
considered, OR think it should NOT be considered?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favor Be Not be DK
considered considered
Current Total 7 28 62 3 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 14 38 45 3 =100
(1/16-17/03) 13 37 46 4 =100
Note: Trends based on Total Adults.
Questions 21a and 21b were asked in random order
21a. Because of Iraq, do you think the military draft is likely to be
reinstated if GEORGE W. BUSH is re-elected in November?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
38 Yes, likely to be reinstated
51 No, not likely
11 Don't know
100
21b. Because of Iraq, do you think the military draft is likely to be
reinstated if JOHN KERRY is elected in November?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
18 Yes, likely to be reinstated
67 No, not likely
15 Don't know
100
21c. In trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, do you think the Bush
administration has done too much to involve major allies and
international organizations, not enough, or about the right amount?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Too much Not enough Right amount DK
Current Total 7 51 36 6 =100
Trends =100
(7/29-30/04) 11 43 38 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 4 36 42 8 =100
(9/25-26/03) 8 41 44 7 =100
(3/13-14/03) 17 29 49 5 =100
Note: Trends before 7/29-30/04 based on Total Adults.
22. All in all, how do you think Bush Administration policies and
diplomatic efforts have affected the way people in other countries
feel about the United States? Do you think their policies and
diplomatic efforts have... (READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 7/29-30/04 3/13-14/03
10 Improved America's image around the
world 9 13
60 Led to more anti-Americanism around
the world 60 56
24 Haven't had much effect either way 25 25
6 Don't know 6 6
100 100 100
Note: 3/13-14/03 trend based on Total Adults.
23. Please tell me how much you approve or disapprove of each of the
following Bush administration policies and proposals. (First,) what
about... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE) (Do you strongly approve,
somewhat approve, somewhat DISapprove, or strongly disapprove of this
Bush administration policy or proposal)?
Strongly Approve SA Somewhat disapprove SWD
Somewhat Approve SWA Strongly disapprove SD
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
SA SWA SWD SD DK
a. The general policy that calls
for pre-emptive military strikes
against countries or groups
that threaten the United States
BEFORE there have been any actual
attacks on Americans or U.S.
interests
Current Total 26 24 19 23 8 =100
Trend
(1/22-23/04) 22 28 20 25 5 =100
b. Renewing the Patriot Act that
restricts Americans' civil
liberties in an effort to curb
terrorism
Current Total 24 26 15 25 10 =100
Trend
(1/22-23/04) 24 33 14 20 9 =100
c. The awarding of contracts for
rebuilding Iraq to Halliburton,
the company where Vice President
Cheney had served as chief
executive
Current Total 10 20 18 43 9 =100
Trend
(1/22-23/04) 8 24 19 39 10 =100
d. The proposal to build an
anti-missile shield to protect
the United States from a
nuclear attack
Current Total 36 26 12 17 9 =100
24. Over his 19-year career in the U.S. Senate, John Kerry has changed his
position on a number of issues. From what you know about Kerry, do
you think this is MORE because ... (ROTATE ANSWER CATEGORIES 1-2)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 3/18-19/04
47 Kerry is thoughtful and changes his position as 38
circumstances change
or he learns more about an issue (or)
47 Kerry is politically-motivated and changes his 48
position when he thinks
it will improve his image or help him win an
election (or)
6 Don't know/Refused 14
100 100
25. On another subject...How much, if any, of (tonight's/Thursday night's)
presidential debate between Bush and Kerry did you happen to watch -
all or most of it, about half of it, only some, OR hardly any or none
of it?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 10/4-6/00
53 All or most of the debate 41
10 About half 14
11 Only some 14
26 Hardly any or none 29
* Don't know 2
100 100
Note: Trend question was asked about first Bush-Gore debate on October 3,
2000.
26. Regardless of which presidential candidate you now support, who do you
think won the debate... George W. Bush (or) John Kerry?
BASED ON DEBATE VIEWERS
Bush Kerry No winner/about even DK
(vol.)
Current Total 19 61 16 4 =100
Men 19 63 15 3 =100
Women 19 58 18 5 =100
Republicans 39 33 24 4 =100
Democrats 4 85 7 4 =100
Independents 14 62 20 4 =100
Trend
(10/4-6/00)
Bush/Gore 25 37 29 9 =100
Note: Debate viewers are voters who say they watched at least some of
Thursday night's debate. Trend question was asked about first Bush-Gore
debate that took place on October 3, 2000.
27. We'd like you to compare the two presidential candidates' performance
in (tonight's/Thursday night's) debate with your expectations for them
prior to the debate. Did...(INSERT-READ AND ROTATE) do better or
worse in the debate than you expected -- OR about the same?
BASED ON DEBATE VIEWERS
Better Worse Same DK
a. George W. Bush
Current Total 11 38 49 2 =100
Men 9 38 50 3 =100
Women 13 39 47 1 =100
Republicans 12 27 59 2 =100
Democrats 9 52 37 2 =100
Independents 12 33 52 3 =100
Trend
(10/4-6/00) 40 16 41 3 =100
b. John Kerry
Current Total 56 3 40 1 =100
Men 55 3 40 2 =100
Women 56 3 40 1 =100
Republicans 39 3 56 2 =100
Democrats 69 2 28 1 =100
Independents 57 4 37 2 =100
Trend
(10/4-6/00) Gore 27 18 50 5 =100
Note: Debate viewers are voters who say they watched at least some of
Thursday night's debate. Trend question was asked about first Bush-Gore
debate that took place on October 3, 2000.
28. Now I'm going to read you a list of statements about
(tonight's/Thursday night's) debate and ask whether you think each one
better describes ... (INSERT AND ROTATE) George W. Bush (or) John
Kerry. Does this statement better describe Bush or Kerry IN THE
DEBATE?
BASED ON DEBATE VIEWERS
Bush Kerry Same Neither DK
(vol.) (vol.)
a. Had a better
command of issues
and facts
Current Total 37 51 6 2 4 =100
b. Was more truthful
about his own
proposals and his
opponent's
Current Total 43 45 7 1 4 =100
c. Was more negative
or nasty in what
he said about his
opponent
Current Total 37 36 7 15 5 =100
d. Seemed more
confident and self
assured
Current Total 26 62 8 1 3 =100
e. Came across as a
stronger leader
Current Total 44 47 4 1 4 =100
f. Seemed more
personally likeable
Current Total 41 47 6 3 3 =100
g. Had a better plan
for how to protect
the country from
future terrorist
attacks
Current Total 44 41 3 6 6 =100
h. Had a better plan
for dealing with the
situation in Iraq
Current Total 45 45 2 4 4 =100
i. Came closer to
reflecting your
own views on most
foreign policy
issues
Current Total 43 49 1 3 4 =100
j. Too wordy
Current Total 25 40 8 22 5 =100
k. Too repetitive
Current Total 57 22 8 8 5 =100
Note: Debate viewers are voters who say they watched at least some of
Thursday night's debate. Item e wording has been slightly modified.
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
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SOURCE Newsweek
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Related links:
http://www.newsweek.msnbc.com
CONTACT:
Jan Angilella of Newsweek, +1-212-445-5638
NOTE TO EDITORS: To interview Senior Editor Marcus Mabry on the
poll, contact Jan Angilella at 212-445-5638.
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