Race Appears Tighter in Swing States
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Oct. 20 /PRNewswire/ -- With only two weeks to go before
the election, a new Harris Poll finds President George W. Bush leading Senator
John Kerry, but the size of the lead depends on how we define likely voters.
And in 17 swing states -- in which votes for President Bush and Vice President
Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections -- Senator Kerry is doing
better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead.
However, the sampling error on this sub-sample in the swing states is
substantially higher than for the nationwide sample.
These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,016 U.S.
adults surveyed by telephone between October 14 and 17, 2004.
Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote
and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a
modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding all
those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush
has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has
proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this
election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which
case it would be wrong to exclude them.
Adding to the confusion about how to define likely voters (and Harris
Interactive(R) has not yet decided which definition to use in our final
predictions) this poll suggests that Senator Kerry may be doing better in the
swing states, in which the battle for electoral college votes will be decided.
In 17 swing states (where the total popular vote was tied 48% to 48% in
the 2000 election) this poll shows Senator Kerry with a seven-point lead using
one definition of likely voters (51% to 44%) and a tie using the other
definition (47% each). While these numbers should be treated with caution
because of the small sample sizes, they suggest the possibility that the
popular vote and the electoral college vote may divide differently, as they
did in 2000.
This poll also confirms that most likely voters (86%) believe they have
made up their minds and will not change them. Bush supporters are more likely
than Kerry supporters to say this. However, Kerry supporters (45%) are a
little more likely than Bush supporters (39%) to believe that the result of
this election will make a great deal of difference to them or their families
-- which may increase their likely turnout.
Another pair of questions shed light on the reasons why people are
supporting the two candidates. Most voters for Bush and for Kerry say they are
voting more for their choice rather than against his opponent. However, 40
percent of Kerry supporters say their vote is more a vote against Bush than
for Kerry, while only 17 percent of Bush supporters say they are voting mainly
against Kerry.
TABLE 1
BUSH VS. KERRY
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters
Likely Voters Likely Voters
(1) (2)
% %
George W. Bush 48 51
John Kerry 46 43
Ralph Nader 1 1
Other 1 1
Not sure/Refused 4 4
Bush Lead 2 8
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in
2000 (n=755).
TABLE 2
BUSH VS. KERRY IN 17 SWING STATES
Q: "If the next presidential election were held today between George W.
Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an
Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?"
If respondent said "not sure/refused":
Q: "Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John
Kerry, or Ralph Nader?"
Base: Likely Voters in Swing States
Likely Voters Likely Voters
(1) (2)
% %
George W. Bush 44 47
John Kerry 51 47
Ralph Nader * *
Other 1 1
Not sure/Refused 4 4
Bush Lead -7 -
Likely Voters (1): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=319).
Likely Voters (2): Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote and that (if they were old enough) they voted in
2000 (n=293).
NOTE: This table is based on only 319 and 293 likely voters with a larger
sampling error (plus or minus 6 percentage points) than for Table 1.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 3
MADE UP MIND OR MAY CHANGE IT
"As far as your voting in the presidential election on November 2nd, have
you...?"
Base: Likely Voters
Likely Election Preference:
Voters Bush Kerry
% % %
Firmly made your decision and
won't change your mind 86 91 84
Made a decision but still
might change your mind 7 6 9
Not made up your mind yet 7 4 6
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=820).
TABLE 4
HOW MUCH DIFFERENCE RESULT WILL MAKE
"How much difference do you think the result of the election for president
will make to you and your family -- a great deal of difference, quite a lot,
not much, or no difference at all?"
Base: Likely Voters or Already Voted
Likely Election Preference:
Voters Bush Kerry
% % %
A great deal of difference 43 39 45
Quite a lot 30 30 31
Not much 19 23 19
No difference at all 6 5 4
Not sure/Refused 1 2 *
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=828 for Likely Voters or Already Voted).
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
* = Less than 0.5 percent.
TABLE 5
ARE BUSH VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST KERRY?
"Is your support for President George Bush more a vote for George Bush OR a
vote against John Kerry?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer George W. Bush
Total
%
For George W. Bush 82
Against John Kerry 17
Not sure/Refused 1
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=428 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Bush).
TABLE 6
ARE KERRY VOTERS VOTING FOR HIM OR AGAINST BUSH?
"Is your support for Senator John Kerry more a vote for John Kerry OR a vote
against George Bush?"
Base: Likely Voters Who Prefer John Kerry
Total
%
For John Kerry 58
Against George W. Bush 40
Not sure/Refused 2
Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote (n=383 for Likely Voters Who Prefer Kerry).
Methodology
The Harris Poll(R) was conducted by telephone within the United States
between October 14 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,016
adults (ages 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of
adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of
place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual
proportions in the population. The two definitions of likely voters are based
on samples of 820 and 755, and the two samples of likely voters in swing
states are 319 and 293.
In theory, with a probability sample of this size (820 or 755), one can
say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of
plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S.
adult population of likely voters had been polled with complete accuracy.
Statistical precision for the likely voters in swing states samples (319 and
293) is plus or minus 6 percentage points. Unfortunately, there are several
other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more
serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals
to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order,
interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g.,
for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result
from these factors.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National
Council on Public Polls.
J22300
Q439, Q440, Q441, Q442, Q443, Q445
About Harris Interactive(R)
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that blends premier strategic consulting with innovative and efficient methods
of investigation, analysis and application. Well known for The Harris Poll(R)
and for pioneering Internet-based research methods, Rochester, New York-based
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Harris Interactive
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Harris Interactive
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